Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy ditched his trademark olive green military attire for a black suit for talks in Downing Street on Monday with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany.
It wasn’t quite a mourning suit, but – though he tried his best to hide it – that might have better matched Zelenskiy’s demeanour as the allies discussed the Russia-friendly peace deal that US president Donald Trump is trying to ram down Europe’s throat.
Britain’s prime minister Keir Starmer tried to accentuate the positive in advance of the lunchtime meeting, telling reporters in London that “I do think that we’re making progress”. Always conscious of keeping Trump onside, Starmer also stroked the US president’s ego by paying tribute to him for his efforts “getting it this far”.
France’s president Emmanuel Macron insisted Ukraine and its allies “have a lot of cards” still to play, but Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz was more circumspect.
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“I am sceptical of some of the details which we are seeing in documents coming from the US side. But we have to talk about it,” said Merz.
The 2½-hour discussion focused heavily on the security guarantees that Ukraine could expect to receive from its western allies, should it sign up to the peace deal. Starmer said any security guarantees would have to be “hard-edged”.
Meanwhile, Zelenskiy acknowledged that Ukraine “can’t manage” to fight the war without its US and European backers. But mostly, it cannot manage without the US.
Despite Macron’s posturing, the fragility of the Ukrainian and European position on security guarantees is exposed in the relative weakness of the armed forces of, for example, the UK.
If Trump walked away, how could Britain credibly guarantee Ukraine’s security in the face of Russian aggression if it might not be able to guarantee its own?
Since Trump came to office, Britain has made lofty promises to boost its military that its strained fiscal position suggests it may struggle to meet.
Starmer had already pledged to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product, a measure of the value of its economy) by 2027. Then in February, in advance of his first meeting with Trump in Washington, he committed Britain to reaching 3 per cent of GDP sometime “in the next parliament”, ie by 2034.
By June, Starmer went further, joining a pledge by other members of the US-led Nato military alliance to raise military spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035. The UK’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, has calculated the UK would need to find £32 billion in today’s money to bring its defence spending up to that level.
Yet Starmer’s government struggled to find £2.3 billion last month to pay for the abolition of its two-child benefits cap. With debt approaching 100 per cent of GDP and its economy stuck in low-growth mode, the UK prime minister appears to be writing cheques that his treasury and ministry of defence may struggle to cash. There was hardly any extra money allocated for defence spending in last month’s UK budget.
[ Bringing the Ukraine war to its endgame is going to mean messy compromisesOpens in new window ]
An official analysis of the state of Britain’s armed forces, lodged recently in the House of Commons library, found that the UK’s Royal Air Force had 13 per cent fewer personnel than it should have, given its commitments. The RAF would be central to any security guarantees the UK gave to Ukraine.
After their meeting, the leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and the UK emerged briefly for some performative bonhomie on the steps of Downing Street, before Zelenskiy and Starmer disappeared back inside for more talks alone.
Meanwhile, the head of Britain’s Royal Navy, Gwyn Jenkins, warned starkly that Russia is on the brink of supremacy in the Atlantic Ocean for the first time since the second World War.
Pressure is mounting relentlessly on Ukraine, but on Britain too.
