UKAnalysis

Labour’s attack adverts suggest gear change by leader Keir Starmer

Opposition party’s aggressive tactics meant to demonstrate capacity and determination for the next electoral fight

Keir Starmer has until now often been accused of being over-cautious by senior members of his own side. File photograph: Getty Images
Keir Starmer has until now often been accused of being over-cautious by senior members of his own side. File photograph: Getty Images
Mark Paul's picture
Mark Paul in London
Tue Apr 18 2023 - 05:00

“Do you think adults convicted of sexually assaulting children should go to prison? Rishi Sunak doesn’t.”

With this startling attack advertisement directed against the UK prime minister two weeks ago, the Labour Party has signalled it intends to play dirty in the next general election. Indeed, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting promised over the weekend there is “more to come”.

After four Conservative election wins on the trot and the Brexit psychodrama of recent years, all the signs are that British politics won’t quieten anytime soon. The contest next year will be a dogfight.

Conservatives say that Sunak, who wasn’t even a member of parliament for the first five years of this period, has no input into sentencing guidelines

Labour’s thin justification for the attack on Sunak rests on the fact that 4,500 adults who have been convicted in Britain of sexually assaulting children have not been sent to prison since the Tories came to power in 2010. Conservatives say that Sunak, who wasn’t even a member of parliament for the first five years of this period, has no input into sentencing guidelines anyway. Meanwhile, Labour leader Keir Starmer sat on the sentencing council when he was director of public prosecutions.

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The attack tweet is just the most prominent of a tranche of aggressive adverts that Labour released in advance of the two-week parliamentary recess that ended on Monday. The first attack was swiftly followed by another, again based on crime statistics, which suggested Sunak doesn’t personally believe that thieves should be punished. A third advert targeted the tax status of his wife, Akshata Murthy. Other adverts are being held in the wings.

The detail of the attacks seems to matter less than the fact that everybody is talking about them. Labour’s newly aggressive communications strategy has delighted party headquarters by monopolising recent media attention. But it has also split the party’s grandees, with some appearing squeamish at Labour’s apparent descent into “gutter politics”.

Former home secretary David Blunkett sharply criticised the “deeply offensive” adverts that he said left him “close to despair”. Yet his former cabinet colleague Peter Mandelson, who is both revered and reviled for his skills in propaganda, said on Monday that he would have signed off on the adverts to help level the pitch due to what he perceives as the Tories’ grip on much of the print media.

Meanwhile, former shadow chancellor of the exchequer John McDonnell said the Labour Party should be “better than this”. But he was one of the most senior members of the Labour team led by Jeremy Corbyn that lost two elections to the Conservatives, including its biggest electoral hiding since the 1930s, which was delivered in 2019 by its rivals under Boris Johnson.

If the attack adverts help Starmer do better, he will care little about how it looks to Corbynites who themselves were successfully monstered by Tory party attack commercials in the lead-up to the 2019 election.

The elevation of Rishi Sunak to prime minister has precipitated a narrowing of Labour’s lead over the Conservatives

The latest adverts suggest a gear change by the Labour leader as the next election draws near. Until now, Starmer has often been accused of being over-cautious by senior members of his own side. The new approach represents an uncharacteristic gamble, with a poll published by the Observer over the weekend suggesting the adverts damaged Labour in the eyes of voters. Crucially, however, they damaged the Tories even more.

The elevation of Sunak to prime minister has precipitated a narrowing of Labour’s lead over the Conservatives. Starmer’s party was 30 percentage points ahead in Politico’s poll of polls as recently as October, at the height of the Liz Truss financial drama that followed Johnson’s resignation. Politico’s most recent numbers last week suggest the lead has been cut to 15 points.

Surveys suggest that Sunak is significantly more popular than his party among voters. So it makes sense for Labour to attack its rival’s best electoral asset. With the polls narrowing, it may also make sense to do it now.

Above all else, Labour’s attack adverts suggest the party is prepared to do whatever it must to secure power. Starmer wants to signal that he has the stomach for the fight.

If Labour ends up feasting on victory, the adverts may be soon forgotten.