Johnson badly wounded politically as he wins stay of execution

Monday night’s vote produced the worst possible outcome for the Conservative party, leaving Boris Johnson seriously wounded but still in place. With 211 votes to 148, Johnson won 59 per cent of the vote; a smaller share than Theresa May’s in 2018 when she won 63 per cent and was gone six months later.

The vote allows Johnson to continue in office but at the head of an increasingly ungovernable Conservative parliamentary party. Before the vote, the prime minister’s authority was so fragile that, even with an 80-seat majority, he was forced into a succession of policy U-turns by the threat of rebellion from the back benches.

On everything from free school meals for poor children to reforms to the planning system aimed at increasing the housing supply, Johnson has repeatedly talked tough only to be forced into retreat by his own MPs. Now that so many MPs have declared they no longer have confidence in his leadership, his grip on the levers of parliamentary power is weaker than it has ever been.

Appealing for their support ahead of the vote, Johnson told his MPs that it was an opportunity to put an end to speculation about his leadership and to focus on the business of government. But there will be numerous opportunities for further speculation in the coming months, starting with two byelections on June 23rd which the Conservatives are expected to lose.

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Meanwhile, the Commons privileges committee will spend the summer investigating whether Johnson knowingly misled Parliament about the Downing Street parties. The committee has the power to summon witnesses and could pose awkward questions about gatherings in the Downing Street flat which senior civil servant Sue Gray chose not to investigate fully.

If it concludes that the prime minister did knowingly mislead MPs, that is a resigning offence, according to the ministerial code – and it is likely to fuel calls for a fresh vote of no confidence. Under the current rules of the 1922 Committee, Johnson is immune from such a vote for the next 12 months but the committee’s senior officers can change the rules if they choose.

The weakness of Johnson’s position will further limit his room for manoeuvre on policy, as he is more dependent on the Eurosceptic and libertarian right of the party. So after he introduces the Bill to scrap the protocol this week, he will be trapped by his backbenchers into seeing it through, even at the risk of a trade war that will hurt an already frail British economy.

Conservative MPs have voted confidence in their leader but it is not so much a victory for Johnson or even a reprieve as it is a stay of execution. It could be a brief one.