As regional and world leaders gathered in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to discuss how to convert the Gaza ceasefire into a long-term project to bring peace and prosperity to the region, an immediate problem raises questions over the chances of success.
While US president Donald Trump was visiting the Knesset, Hamas announced that it would only be able to return four of the 28 bodies of hostages being held in Gaza. The announcement sent shock waves through Israel.
Israel had insisted throughout the negotiations that the first stage of the deal include the return of all 48 hostages – the 20 living and 28 deceased.
The Hostage and Missing Families forum called the Hamas announcement a “blatant breach” of the ceasefire and called on the Israeli government to halt the implementation of the agreement until the “full and absolute release of all the bodies”.
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Israel’s negotiation team and defence officials held intensive discussions on how to secure the return of the remaining deceased hostages, many of whom are believed to be buried beneath the rubble.
Hamas made it clear during the negotiations that it would not be able to locate all the bodies, and an international mechanism is being set up in an effort to locate them based on information obtained by Israeli intelligence and the use of advanced engineering equipment.
Another immediate problem is the attempt by Hamas to reassert its control in the areas evacuated by Israeli forces in the last few days.
Masked Hamas gunmen are already on the streets and clashes have occurred as the group settles scores with individuals and local clans who acted against it, often in co-ordination with Israel, during the conflict.
One of the immediate tasks is to deploy an alternative force that can take control of the enclave. Some 5,000 Palestinian security personnel who have been training in Egypt in recent months are due to enter the Strip in three stages.
At the same time, thousands of Palestinian police officers will continue training in Jordan in preparation for their entry into Gaza under the ceasefire agreement.
However, by the time the alternative force is deployed, Hamas may have reasserted almost total control.
Israeli forces are due to gradually withdraw from almost all of Gaza, apart from a narrow security zone along the border. But this withdrawal is linked to Hamas ceding control of the enclave, disarming and decommissioning its weapons and turning Gaza’s governance over to an international trusteeship overseen by the US and Arab allies.
The second phase of the ceasefire agreement contains no deadlines for the next steps, but Middle East history teaches us that vacuums in governance soon descend into chaos.
