Despite personal reservations and opposition from hard-right members of his coalition, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has accepted US president Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to bring about a ceasefire and end the war in Gaza. Hamas has given a conditional yes.
Has the fighting stopped in Gaza?
As Hamas and Israel prepared for Monday’s indirect technical negotiations on a ceasefire, Israel has bombed Gaza, killing dozens, despite Trump’s demand for an immediate suspension of the Gaza offensive.
How soon might the war end?
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This could take time. There must be a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops, and a prisoner exchange before negotiations on ending the war can gain traction.
Israel will need to negotiate with Palestinians an end to the occupation and the eventual emergence of a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu rejects.
Hamas would be obliged to disarm and demobilise its military wing and accept that the movement would not have a role in the future governance of Gaza.
How long could negotiations take?
Trump has said he wants the first phase of the effort to secure a ceasefire and end the war to be completed this week. “I am asking everyone to MOVE FAST,” he wrote in a social media post.
While both have accepted Trump’s plan, each has its own interpretation of its terms, which could delay implementation.
Where do the parties stand?
Until recently, Netanyahu repeatedly said he had no intention of ending the war. Hamas is reported to be “keen” to reach an agreement to ceasefire, exchange 48 Israeli hostages for 250 Palestinian prisoners plus 1,700 captive Gazans and negotiate an end to the war.
Who are the external players who want this deal to be implemented now?
Trump has exerted strong pressure on Netanyahu, although right-wingers in his coalition have vowed to bolt if he capitulates.
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Hamas is under pressure from sponsors the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and the majority of Gazans who are tired after two years of war.
What cards do each side hold?
Israel occupies more than 75 per cent of the strip and seeks to finish the job by occupying Gaza City.
As the hostages are Hamas’s only leverage on Israel, the group wants US guarantees that it will withdraw from Gaza and carry out its obligations under the plan.
What are the obstacles to implementation?
Trump is an erratic actor with a short attention span and may not remain committed to implementation.
Netanyahu could sabotage the deal. He is seen by Israeli commentators as a master at sabotage.
Hamas trusts neither the US nor Israel. Its Arab supporters cannot deliver Israel’s compliance.
