Iran’s hardliners are working to undermine the country’s reformist president and preclude negotiations with the US despite growing threats from Donald Trump, raising the prospect of heightened tension between the two countries.
Masoud Pezeshkian’s election less than a year ago appeared to herald an opportunity to engage with Washington, as the reformist leader vowed to seek a deal over the country’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
His plan now appears in tatters. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – the regime’s ultimate decision maker – last month ruled out talks with Washington after Trump, the US president, reimposed the “maximum pressure” sanctions policy from his first term.
Trump on Friday upped the ante, saying he wrote to Khamenei urging him to negotiate or risk military action. “If we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing for them,” he told Fox Business. “You can’t let them have a nuclear weapon.”
Hebrew graffiti and a mass funeral in a Lebanese village on the Israeli border
Israeli security services point finger at Netanyahu as they own up to errors over Hamas’s October 7th incursion
Turkey’s Erdogan makes risky bet on peace with Kurds
‘We’ll rest when we win’: No let-up for Ukraine’s medics and rescue teams as war with Russia grinds on
But hardline factions have moved to weaken Pezeshkian and his reformist allies. The hardline-dominated parliament this month impeached Abdolnaser Hemmati, the economy minister, while Mohammad Javad Zarif, a vice-president and architect of the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump later abandoned, was forced to resign by the judiciary.
“Parliament will not allow the US, Israel and reformists to deliberately mount economic pressure to trigger unrest and force the establishment to change its [hostile] stance towards the West,” Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a hardline politician, said.
Khamenei and hardline politicians believe Trump is seeking to stop not only Iran’s nuclear activities but also force concessions over its military programmes and support for regional proxies, something Tehran considers essential to its security and strength. Tehran denies it is trying to develop nuclear weapons.
Hardliners argue that relying on domestic economic potential and strengthening ties with China and neighbouring countries is enough to compensate for American sanctions. “The impeachment was an ultimatum to the government to ease economic pressure by relying on domestic capabilities rather than pinning hopes on talks with the US,” Taraghi said.
There is mounting speculation among ordinary people, western diplomats and political circles over whether Pezeshkian can survive until his term ends in 2028.
Widespread economic pain – Iran’s rial depreciated 60 per cent against the US dollar during Hemmati’s tenure, while prices for essential goods have soared – has undermined popular support. And even reformists are growing critical of the president for failing to deliver on his campaign promises.
Some reformist politicians have warned that the two most prominent remaining pro-reform cabinet members – the ministers of labour and health – can now be at risk of impeachment too.
“Radical hardliners, acting without a coherent strategy and solely focused on attacking political symbols, have inflicted damage thanks to Trump’s return,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reformist political analyst. “This, combined with the extraordinary indecision over major economic reforms in Pezeshkian’s government, suggests we are moving towards a deeper deadlock.”
Taraghi said hardliners had no intention of removing Pezeshkian and the country’s top leaders would not allow him to step down. However, he said Pezeshkian had to distance himself from reformists’ “neoliberal” economic policies.
For months before Trump reimposed maximum pressure, Pezeshkian’s senior diplomats had signalled willingness to discuss Iran’s nuclear programme with Washington.
The regime was reeling from one of its most devastating years ever, leaving many observers to argue it had no choice but to seek a deal. Its regional proxy forces such as Hizbullah suffered severe losses in conflict with Israel, which also engaged in its first direct missile exchanges with Iran and threatened to strike its nuclear sites. Tehran’s regional ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria was also ousted last year.
Trump’s conditions for a deal, however, appeared to involve not only Iran’s nuclear activities but also its ballistic missile programme and support for regional proxies, prompting Khamenei’s intervention.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Tehran would not negotiate while Trump’s maximum pressure policy remained in place. The country’s mission to the UN said on Sunday that while Tehran could consider negotiating over the “potential militarisation” of its nuclear programme, it would “never” discuss dismantling the peaceful programme altogether.
Analysts say Pezeshkian’s fate will largely depend on his relationship with the supreme leader, which has so far remained strong. Some politicians believe Khamenei will protect Pezeshkian from further blows for the sake of stability.
“Radical hardliners needed a power play to break their isolation and prove they are not completely marginalised,” said Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former reformist vice-president. “However, the supreme leader will not allow them to paralyse Pezeshkian’s government.”
If the hardliners’ immediate aim is to prevent talks with the US, however, their efforts to weaken Pezeshkian and the reformists also appear to have a longer-term goal: influencing the supreme leader’s succession process.
While the topic remains largely taboo, the question of who will succeed 85-year-old Khamenei upon his death is a major concern among political elites.
Hardliners, some of whom are said to favour the leader’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, for the role, fear a detente with the US might allow reformists to leverage Washington’s influence to sideline them in a future succession process.
Yet the regime faces rising public frustration. Pezeshkian, who has admitted struggling to sell oil due to the new US sanctions, will soon have to decide whether to increase petrol prices – a move that triggered widespread unrest in 2019. Currently, a litre of petrol is sold for about $0.01, an unsustainable subsidised price.
“The current situation has already drained Pezeshkian’s political capital,” Abbas Abdi, a pollster who campaigned for Pezeshkian but is now critical of him, told local media.
Abdi said initial public trust in Pezeshkian had nearly halved but could rise if negotiations with the US resume. Otherwise, he added, “if the current downward trend continues, we will have to abandon any remaining hope in this government”. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
