After days of nerve-racking negotiations in Qatar, an agreement was finally reached on Wednesday to end the Gaza war and release Israeli hostages held in the Strip.
The 15-month war began in response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7th, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 250 were taken hostage, according to Israeli figures.
More than 46,700 people have been killed in Gaza since, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry. Most of the 2.3 million population has also been displaced, and much of Gaza lies in ruins, particularly the northern areas. Residents will be allowed to return to the north as part of the ceasefire but many will return to neighbourhoods where the destruction is near total. The reconstruction effort could take decades.
Despite the ceasefire the post-war arrangement for Gaza remains unclear. Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Mustafa said on Wednesday that the Palestinian Authority must be the sole governing power in Gaza after the war. “While we are waiting for the ceasefire it is important to stress that it won’t be acceptable for any other entity to govern the Gaza Strip but the legitimate Palestinian leadership and the government of the state of Palestine,” he told a conference in Norway, without mentioning Hamas.
The two far-right parties in Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition oppose the deal because it leaves Hamas intact, though significantly weakened, and because more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will be released, reportedly including some 250 who were involved in fatal attacks on Israelis.
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After previous prisoner releases many of those set free returned to militant activity. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, killed by Israel last October, was himself freed by Israel as part of a 2011 prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas that brought about the release of kidnapped Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit in return for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
Even if the two far-right parties vote against the ceasefire deal in Thursday’s cabinet meeting, Netanyahu will still have a majority. But they could also potentially quit the government, endangering the stability of Netanyahu’s coalition.
National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength), announced that he and his fellow party ministers would vote against the emerging deal, which he described as an act of “surrender” to Hamas. He called on Religious Zionist party head Bezalel Smotrich to join him in quitting the government should the ceasefire be ratified by the cabinet.
Smotrich has still not said how he plans to act regarding the ceasefire, stating that his only priority is to fully achieve the goals of the war. “Total victory, the complete military and civil destruction of Hamas, and returning the hostages home. I won’t rest or be silent until we achieve these goals,” he said.
He reportedly sought assurances from Netanyahu that the war will resume after the hostages are set free. However, it is unlikely that incoming US president Donald Trump will agree to a resumption of the fighting after making it clear that the Gaza war must end before he assumes office.
Netanyahu has played the “Trump card” in his dealings with the far-right opponents of the Gaza ceasefire. They hope that significant steps can be taken towards annexing areas of the occupied West Bank during the term of the new administration. Quitting the government could jeopardise such a scenario.
Both the far-right parties support renewing Jewish settlement in Gaza. The ceasefire will bury this idea, at least for the foreseeable future.
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