Middle EastAnalysis

Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deals: What are the outstanding issues?

There is cautious optimism from all parties that gaps between them are narrowing

A demonstration calling for a hostages' deal on December 17th, 2024, in Tel Aviv, Israel. Former hostages and other supporters of those still held by Hamas called for a deal to return the remaining 100 people who remain captive in Gaza. Photograph: Amir Levy/Getty Images
A demonstration calling for a hostages' deal on December 17th, 2024, in Tel Aviv, Israel. Former hostages and other supporters of those still held by Hamas called for a deal to return the remaining 100 people who remain captive in Gaza. Photograph: Amir Levy/Getty Images

Negotiations continue via international mediators over the exact wording of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal, and there is still no certainty that an agreement will actually be signed. However, there is cautious optimism from all parties that the gaps are narrowing and after more than 14 months of fighting and 45,000 dead in Gaza, along with 1,700 Israeli fatalities, the end may finally be close.

Every day fresh reports emerge over details of specific clauses of the emerging deal. Differences remain, according to the latest reports, on how many and which hostages will be released in the various stages, and on Israel’s veto on releasing Palestinian militants, meaning how many security prisoners who were involved in the murder of Israelis (“blood on their hands” in Israeli parlance) Israel can strike from the release list.

The heart of the disagreement is apparently the ratio of hostages-to-Palestinian prisoners to be released, with no consensus on the number of hostages to be freed. Israel insists on learning the identity of all those to be released in the first stage of the deal.

The impending release of militants is the main reason the two far-right parties in prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition are opposed to the deal. Religious Zionist Party leader, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, said a deal in which hundreds of militants are released and in which the Israel Defense Forces leaves the northern Gaza Strip would be wrong.

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“Hamas is at its lowest point since the beginning of the war. This is not the time to give it a lifeline,” he said. “I think a deal in which we release hundreds of murderous terrorists will negate many of the war’s achievements.”

National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength) party, said Israel is on the right path in Gaza, and should encourage the Palestinian population to leave. “I’m not willing to end the war, we mustn’t end this war – ever,” he told Netanyahu.

Despite the opposition of these two parties Netanyahu is confident that ministers will endorse any ceasefire deal he brings before the cabinet. There is also widespread support in the Knesset parliament and among the public.

The agreement appears to be similar to the deal US president Joe Biden outlined on May 31st, but both sides presented so many reservations that the plan never progressed. Since then Israel has killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and thousands more militants, enabling Netanyahu to claim a decisive victory and to fall in line with president-elect Donald Trump’s call to end the war before January 20th.