Middle EastAnalysis

Arab rulers fear Syria could slip into factional chaos

Regional leaders and analysts surprised and shocked by Assad’s sudden fall and flight

The HTS take-over has caused concern among Arab leaders who seek to counter Sunni fundamentalist militants while maintaining relations with Syria. These include Sunni King Abdullah of secular Jordan. Photograph: Yiannis Kourtoglou/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
The HTS take-over has caused concern among Arab leaders who seek to counter Sunni fundamentalist militants while maintaining relations with Syria. These include Sunni King Abdullah of secular Jordan. Photograph: Yiannis Kourtoglou/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Arab rulers remain uneasy over the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) conquest of Syria’s main cities and oppose the group’s rule over the country. They fear Syria could slip into factional infighting, anarchy and chaos. As Arab leaders and analysts had believed Syria had stabilised after years of unrest, they have been surprised and shocked by Bashar al-Assad’s sudden fall and flight, reportedly to Moscow.

“We were living in a world where the Syrian issue was quite stagnant,” said Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari. In May 2023, the previously ostracised Syrian president was welcomed at the Arab summit in Jeddah and Syria regained Arab League membership after a 12-year suspension following Assad’s brutal crackdown on unrest.

Referring to Assad’s handling of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, Ansari said, “There is a tendency in the region for good news to turn into bad news. We would love to see a transition to a viable state that embodies the sacrifices of the Syrian people. We also know realistically that there are a lot of challenges. There are a lot of militants on the ground and there is a possibility of Syria becoming a failed state.”

Aa a covert HTS ally with funds to invest in bankrupt Syria, Qatar has assumed leadership of the Arab effort to initiate dialogue among Syrian factions and promote the formation of a transitional government. A Qatari foreign ministry statement emphasised “the necessity of preserving national institutions” and unity.

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The HTS takeover has caused concern among Arab leaders who seek to counter Sunni fundamentalist militants while maintaining relations with Syria. These include Sunni King Abdullah of secular Jordan and Shia Iran-aligned Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood – which is banned elsewhere – occupies the largest number of seats in parliament.

Iraq’s Sudani has called for “containing the crisis in Syria due to its impact on Iraqi security”, which is undermined by Sunni-Shia tensions. Having urged Assad to end his reliance on Iran and Russia, which failed to keep him in power, Arab leaders are uneasy over the connection between HTS and Turkey, which occupies swathes of northern Syrian territory. Gulf rulers have outlawed the Brotherhood and saw Assad as the obstacle to the take over of Syria by al-Qaeda offshoot HTS.

Israel has responded to the HTS victory by occupying the demilitarised buffer zone between Syria’s Golan province and Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and seizing the strategic Syrian army outpost on the strategic peak of Mount Hermon. This provides the Israeli army with a sweeping view of southern Syria and a launch pad for missiles and artillery shells. Israel has also conducted strikes on arms depots and missile storage sites in Syria and a scientific research facility near Damascus.