Middle EastAnalysis

Mediators’ proposals on Gaza ceasefire to be considered by both Israel and Hamas

Officials from the US, Qatar and Egypt to work on the details over the coming days in the hope of achieving a breakthrough

A young girl comforts the mother of a 23-year-old Palestinian man, a day after he was killed during an attack by Jewish settlers on the village of Jit near Nablus in the occupied West Bank. Photograph: Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP via Getty Images
A young girl comforts the mother of a 23-year-old Palestinian man, a day after he was killed during an attack by Jewish settlers on the village of Jit near Nablus in the occupied West Bank. Photograph: Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP via Getty Images
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Fri Aug 16 2024 - 18:13

After two days of Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar, the US on Friday evening presented proposals aimed at bridging the gap and a response was awaited from both sides.

Details were not released but the mediators, from the US, Qatar and Egypt, said they would continue to work on the details over the coming days, including issues related to hostages and Palestinian prisoners. In a statement they said senior officials would meet before the end of next week in the hope of reaching an agreement.

A source familiar with the discussions said the talks were held in a positive spirit and Qatar’s prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, called Iran’s acting foreign minister after Thursday’s talks stressing the need to maintain calm in the region to allow negotiations continue.

The mediators realise an attack from either Iran or Hizbullah at this juncture could derail the talks and plunge the entire region into chaos.

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It appears that, for the time being at least, Iran has agreed to postpone its threat of retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran does not want to be held responsible for obstructing a potential deal on Gaza.

Such a position also spares Iran from the difficult dilemma of choosing a military response that could prompt a devastating Israeli counterstrike targeting key Iranian economic assets or even Iranian nuclear facilities.

The Iran-backed, Lebanon-based militant group Hizbullah is in a similar position: vowing revenge for the killing of its senior military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, but concerned that Israel will respond with attacks that will cripple Lebanese infrastructure and push back Hizbullah fighters north of the Litani river.

The obstacles to a ceasefire and hostage release deal are many and varied and include Israel’s presence on the Philadelphi corridor border road between Gaza and Egypt, control of the Rafah crossing, the return of displaced Palestinians to the northern Gaza Strip, the inspection mechanism to prevent militants returning to northern Gaza and the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners to be set free by Israel.

The hosts clearly made a huge effort to do everything to provide the best possible conditions for a breakthrough. While Hamas announced it would not attend the summit, its representatives were in Doha and have received regular updates from the mediators.

Ultimately a deal depends on two people: Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Hamas’s new leader Yahya Sinwar, believed to be in a tunnel in Gaza. If and when they both decide that the time is right for a deal it is assumed the differences can be overcome with relative ease.