The Middle East is poised at a critical juncture between a dangerous escalation and hope for a breakthrough that could lead to an end to the Gaza war after more than 10 months of fighting that has left almost 40,000 Palestinians dead.
Tensions reached new levels on Wednesday when Iran’s banking system was the target of what appeared to be a significant cyberattack. It was not clear who was behind the action but suspicions focused on Israel.
The tense standoff between Israel and Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon is now in its third week after the twin assassinations of senior militant leaders in Beirut and Tehran.
On Thursday ceasefire negotiations are due to resume in an effort to end the fighting in Gaza and bring about the release of the Israeli hostages but there was little optimism on the eve of the talks that a breakthrough was imminent.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken cancelled a regional trip at the last minute in a move interpreted as a sign that a deal remained elusive. US president Joe Biden suggested reaching a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could help deter Iran from launching an attack on Israel.
“We’ll see what Iran does and we’ll see what happens if there’s any attack, but I’m not giving up,” he said.
Hamas officials said the group would not send a delegation to the Doha ceasefire talks. Negotiations could continue without the presence of Hamas representatives, however, as the group’s chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya is based in Doha and the group has open channels with Egypt and Qatar.
Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of adding new conditions to a draft ceasefire agreement that has been on the table since May. Israel is still not prepared to commit to a permanent end to the fighting and insists on the right to resume military operations after an initial 42-day truce, during which the first group of hostages is due to be released, including women, elderly and injured captives.
The US, British and German ambassadors to Israel on Wednesday called for a ceasefire agreement that would end the fighting and bring the hostages home.
Exchanges of fire continue on the Israel-Lebanon border. Speaking in Beirut on Wednesday, US envoy Amos Hochstein said he believed a war between Israel and Hizbullah could be avoided. “We continue to believe that a diplomatic resolution is achievable because we continue to believe that no one truly wants a full-scale war,” he said.
A senior Israeli security official said a disproportionate response from Hizbullah could “lead to an Israeli attack that will lead to a new reality on the northern border”, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Palestinian health officials say Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip overnight and into Wednesday killed at least 17 people, including five children and their parents.
According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, more than 39,900 Palestinians have been killed since the war began on October 7th. Israel says 1,200 people were killed and 253 hostages seized in the surprise Hamas attack on that day. A total of 116 hostages remain in Gaza and Israel says it has confirmed the deaths of 42 of them.
Five Palestinians were killed in two Israeli drone strikes in villages in the northern occupied West Bank. The Israeli army said the attacks were part of “counter terrorism” operations in the area. Israeli troops have been operating almost daily against what they say are militants in the northern West Bank and during the Gaza war have increasingly used drones in an effort to reduce the possibility of soldiers being hurt.
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2024
