On Wednesday, Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant warned that the refusal by Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza could reverse military achievements and lead to Israel being sucked into a quagmire with no realistic exit strategy.
The dramatic news conference was a public airing of his differences with the prime minister which have been expressed in war cabinet meetings for months and leaked to the media.
But seven months into the war – the longest in Israel’s history – Netanyahu is not budging; he won’t discuss alternatives until Israel achieves “total victory” against Hamas, although such an outcome has never been clearly defined. Meanwhile, Israeli troops are already back fighting in areas of northern Gaza they previously departed – for the third time in some neighbourhoods.
There are four options for a postwar Gaza, and none of them are good for Netanyahu: Hamas retains its control; the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) occupy Gaza and Israel takes responsibility for the civilian population; Palestinians with no links to Hamas (the Palestinian Authority or elements connected to the Ramallah government) take control with the support of Arab states and the international community; or Somalia-like chaos ensues with armed gangs ruling the streets.
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Netanyahu is avoiding an in-depth debate on what is termed the “Day After” because of pressure from the right-wing flank of the coalition government. The two far-right parties have urged Netanyahu to replace Gallant and have threatened to pull out of the coalition if Israel agrees to any role for the Palestinian Authority, which they consider a terrorist entity just as dangerous as Hamas.
The far-right, along with some members of Netanyahu’s Likud party, would like to see a return to Israel’s occupation of Gaza and, ideally, when the time is right, the re-establishment of Jewish settlements that were uprooted as part of then prime minister Ariel Sharon’s disengagement in 2005, when Israel left Gaza.
But to establish military rule in Gaza, the IDF will need a number of divisions, which it does not have, particularly if it must maintain the high state of readiness for war in the north and a high level of activity in the occupied West Bank.
The entire professional level of the security establishment, along with most of the war cabinet, believes the postwar arrangement debate is essential. The Biden administration has also been urging Israel for months to discuss the Day After.
But, despite Gallant throwing down the gauntlet, Netanyahu will always choose his own political survival over what most perceive as the national interest. He will continue to procrastinate, avoid decisions and focus on stressing what there should not be, rather than what there should be.
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