Top US officials met Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Thursday in an attempt to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough in the region. The US is seeking a normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, although the kingdom has repeatedly said it will not agree to this unless Palestinians achieve statehood.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, regional envoy Brett McGurk and Israel-born energy adviser Amos Hochstein met the crown prince to discuss president Joe Biden’s suggestion of a US-Saudi security pact in exchange for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians.
An unnamed national security council spokesman confirmed that normalisation was discussed. “It’s one effort we are pursuing toward advancing US foreign policy goals for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous and stable Middle East region.”
The elements of a proposed deal have been in circulation for many months. The Saudis, reportedly, seek US agreement to defend the kingdom if attacked, aid for a civilian nuclear programme, and US high-tech weapons.
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The US reportedly wants the Saudis to end their participation in the Yemen war, extend major financial assistance to West Bank Palestinian institutions and curb Saudi-Chinese relations.
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The New York Times reported that the deal could “preserve the possibility of a two-state solution”, involving the emergence of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, by halting the illegal expansion of Israeli settlements and preventing Israel’s annexation of the occupied West Bank.
While Mr bin Salman could, in theory, meet US demands, in practice he would face opposition from overwhelming majorities of Arabs and Muslims who reject relations with Israel.
If Saudi Arabia agreed to a deal without concrete Palestinian gains, the kingdom would lose support among Muslims for its guardianship of Islam’s holy cities of Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia would also lose support from the political leadership of Arab and Muslim countries.
By insisting on the creation of a Palestinian state as its price for normalisation, Saudi Arabia has already made a major concession to the US and Israel by abandoning its own 2002 plan for full Israeli relations with the Arabs in exchange for full Israeli withdrawal from Arab territory occupied by Israel in 1967. This would include Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem and Syria’s Golan Heights, as well as the occupied West Bank and Gaza.
The Biden administration would be challenged by Congress and Israel. Lawmakers in both Democrat and Republican parties insist that a Saudi defence pact and the supply of nuclear technology and advanced weaponry must have Congressional authorisation. Radical-right ministers in Israel’s government reject any quid pro quo that would limit settlement activity and create a Palestinian entity.
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On July 12th, Israel’s finance minister Bezalel Smotrich called for a doubling of occupied West Bank settlers to one million. This would demonstrate “the impossibility of establishing an Arab state west of the [river] Jordan. Facts on the ground deflate aspirations and defeat ambitions.”
