Israeli intelligence officials believe the country’s military deterrence has been seriously eroded by the decision of hundreds of reservists to refuse to serve in protest against the government’s controversial judicial overhaul.
Senior military intelligence officials have reportedly sent four letters to prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu warning that Israel’s enemies have discerned a historic opportunity to change the situation in the region as a result of the unprecedented crisis in Israel caused by the judicial reforms, which opponents claim undermine Israeli democracy.
On Monday the Israel’s parliament passed a law preventing the supreme court from overruling government actions it considers unreasonable, and the right-wing coalition has promised more bills to weaken the judiciary, which it believes is a bastion of left-wing elites.
According to Israeli media reports, top intelligence officers warned that the danger was not just immediate but was liable to have long-term consequences. The army believes Israel’s enemies, led by Iran and the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah, view Israeli deterrence as relying on four legs, all of which have weakened: the army’s strength, the alliance with the US, a strong economy and strong domestic cohesion.
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The intelligence community believes that Iran and Hizbullah will opt to sit on the fence as long as the crisis in Israel continues and internal cohesion erodes. Nevertheless, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) intelligence contends that the likelihood of an escalation by Israel’s enemies has increased and is now at the highest level since the second Lebanon War 17 years ago.
Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah declared this week in a speech that Israel was on the “path to disappearance” following the chaotic protests. “Israel was once thought of as a regional power that can’t be beaten, but its trust, awareness, and self-confidence have deteriorated into the crisis it is experiencing today,” he said.
The head of the Israeli air force warned on Friday that the country’s enemies might exploit the current political crisis. “It’s possible that at a time like this they will try to test the frontiers, our cohesion and our alertness,” Maj Gen Tomer Bar said in an address to his forces, adding that the air force needed to remain “vigilant and prepared”.
Kan public radio also reported on Friday that army and security officials were very concerned by the hundreds of reservists who have stopped volunteering in the air force, cyber and military intelligence units and special forces. Senior military commanders have held top-level talks about the IDF’s cohesion.
The supreme court will convene in September to hear petitions by opposition parties and political watchdog groups to strike down the new law.
Mr Netanyahu, in a CNN interview on Thursday, sidestepped a question on whether he would obey a potential court ruling overturning the new law, saying such a development would put Israel in uncharted waters, facing a constitutional crisis.
Opposition leader Benny Gantz said Mr Netanyahu would be “implementing a judicial coup” if he failed to adhere to a ruling by the court.
