Wagner mutiny unlikely to upset Arab governments’ relations with Russia

The brief Wagner mutiny against Russia’s armed forces and demobilisation are unlikely to have a major impact on Middle Eastern internal conflicts or Arab governments’ relations with Russia.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi backed Russian president Vladimir Putin over Wagner’s defection.

Arab nations were more cautious, with Bahrain calling for stability under Mr Putin and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) urging restraint. Saudi Arabia did not comment officially.

Wagner was founded in 2014 as a mercenary unit to reinforce separatist elements in eastern Ukraine in their battle with Kyiv and has played a major role in the Ukraine war. Wagner was initially composed of fighters from Russia and the former Soviet Republics but when operating elsewhere the force recruited locals.

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Wagner officers and soldiers were deployed to Syria after Russia’s air force intervened decisively in October 2015 in the civil and proxy war.

Operating as special forces alongside the Syrian army, Wagner played a major role in 2016 and 2017 in the liberation from Islamic State (Isis) of the 2,000-year-old Palmyra archaeological site.

Wagner forces also engaged in battles in central Syria and the Damascus’ suburbs, enabling the government to extend its control over 70 per cent of Syria. After the war wound down in 2019, most Wagner fighters withdrew, with those remaining helping to hold territory regained by the government.

Since late 2018, Wagner has been involved with Benghazi-based rebel general Khalifa Haftar in his war against the UN-recognised Libyan government in Tripoli which is led by Muslim Brotherhood figures.

The UAE and Egypt, which have outlawed the Brotherhood, have supported Wagner’s deployment. The Gulf countries have also provided air corridors to transport Wagner troops and supplies to battle fronts and the Emirates has banked revenues from Wagner’s military campaigns, businesses, and sales of gold smuggled from Sudan and the Central African Republic.

This year, Wagner has supplied Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are backed by General Haftar, with surface-to-air missiles in their war with the Sudanese army.

Weapons have been delivered to eastern Libya and transported to Sudan. Ties were forged in 2014 between Moscow and the Sudanese military and RSF, which jointly ruled the country before falling out in April this year. In exchange, Russia was granted access to exploit Sudan’s gold mines.

Although Wagner’s involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts has shrunk with the group’s departure from Syria, key Arab governments have a strong stake in Mr Putin’s retention of power.

Saudis, Emiratis, Egyptians, Syrians, and Algerians depend on Russia as a political counterweight to the US, which has long dominated the region.

Riyadh and Moscow, which export 20 per cent of the world’s oil, co-operate closely on export volumes and pricing.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UAE has flouted Western sanctions by hosting Russian tourists, businesses, and wealthy individuals. In 2022, trade between Russia and UAE grew to $6 billion. Russian exports to Saudi Arabia have also increased while Riyadh has bought Russian oil and petroleum products for domestic consumption.