Ukraine’s leaders are under pressure to order an urgent retreat from the eastern city of Pokrovsk and the neighbouring town of Myrnohrad, as Russia’s invasion force tightens its grip on the area and threatens to close all escape routes for its defenders.
Pokrovsk became Russia’s main target after it occupied the town of Avdiivka, 50km to the east, in February 2024, and its capture would be Moscow’s most significant battlefield success since it took the ruins of Bakhmut, 75km northeast of Pokrovsk, in May 2023.
All three places were heavily fortified military hubs for the Kyiv-controlled part of Donetsk region, and Ukraine clung to them even in the face of impending defeat so as to inflict maximum losses on the enemy and buy time to prepare deeper defensive lines.
In Bakhmut and Avdiivka – and during the seven-month incursion into the Kursk region of Russia that ended in March – Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his commanders were accused by some critics of waiting too long to withdraw units from positions that had become death traps.
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They face the same charge now, as officials claim the situation around Pokrovsk can be stabilised, but a growing number of soldiers and analysts say the city is lost and priority must be given to saving as many troops as possible.
How close is Pokrovsk to falling?
“The Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration is in a semi-encirclement, with logistics effectively cut,” Ukrainian officer and military commentator Mykola Melnyk told Kyiv’s Censor news outlet.
“It is a fact that we will lose Pokrovsk, given the balance of forces and assets we can bring to bear there and from what is happening now. So the question is fairly simple: how do we minimise the damage from what will occur? The problem is not the loss of Pokrovsk per se, but ensuring that all those defending it do not die.”
Ukrainian soldiers inside Pokrovsk, and footage posted on social media from a city devastated by Russian shelling and air strikes, confirm that Moscow’s troops are creeping forward amid street fighting and drone strikes by both sides.
“Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are already basically f***ed,” a Ukrainian drone pilot identified as “Valeriy” told the Hromadske media outlet after spending 13 days in Pokrovsk.
“Those who are in Pokrovsk at forward positions are already effectively surrounded, with little chance of getting out. There are buildings, blocks and streets there that are basically impossible to get past without being shot,” he added.
“We’re not talking about parity any more. [The Russians] control a much larger part of Pokrovsk ... In certain parts of Pokrovsk, they have entrenched and set up defences, while in others they push as far north as possible, aiming to go as deep as possible into our rear.”
Why has Russia made progress in the region?
During much of the battle for Bakhmut, Russia attacked with wave after wave of troops – including many convicts recruited by the Wagner mercenary group – that were mowed down by Ukrainian forces.
Facing heavily fortified Pokrovsk, Russia flanked its edges rather than launching a frontal assault, and in recent months sent in handfuls of soldiers to attack and disrupt the defence of the city and harry supply lines.
Ukraine’s troops are outnumbered, overstretched and often exhausted, and this Russian tactic exploited gaps in defences and the extreme workload on drone pilots, who could not chase down every infiltrator, some of whom were dressed as civilians.
The two pincers of attack now enveloping Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are now only a few kilometres apart, and any Ukrainian soldier or vehicle moving between them will be prey to Russian drones.
Kyiv said it landed special forces operators in Blackhawk helicopters in this area in recent days to expand its troops’ room for manoeuvre, but some observers saw the decision to mount such a risky operation as confirmation of how desperate things must be.
“Even though advancing is slow and costly for Russia, Ukraine also suffers unnecessary losses in these situations,” wrote military analyst Emil Kastehelmi. “It has avoided major catastrophes, but decisions to withdraw have often come dangerously late.”
How big a setback would losing Pokrovsk be?
“Politically, leaving Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad would be a bitter setback, but if Ukraine retreats and conserves as much manpower as possible while avoiding the worst scenarios, the end result can be viewed as a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians,” Kastehelmi added.
“After a year of fighting on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad axis, losing the cities now would have limited effect on the broader operational picture. A Ukrainian retreat from the area doesn’t mean Russia would automatically gain momentum which they could capitalise on immediately.”
Ukraine’s military and officials were accused of facilitating rapid Russian gains west of Avdiivka by failing to prepare fortified fallback positions, but several experts say that stronger defensive lines have been built between Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk and Slovyansk – the two cities in Donetsk region that remain under Kyiv’s full control.
“Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last [autumn],” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defence in the medium to long term.”
