There was only a couple of minutes between the European Commission’s number-cruncher Piotr Serafin addressing MEPs about the next EU budget, and his boss Ursula von der Leyen briefing journalists, but somehow €40 billion went missing.
Serafin, the commissioner responsible for the EU’s budget, told the European Parliament that €451 billion was to be set aside for a new “competitiveness fund” to boost the union’s stalling economy.
When commission president von der Leyen kicked off a press conference very shortly after, she announced the competitiveness fund would be worth €410 billion.
Confusion over shifting figures, both publicly and during back room negotiations, has overshadowed the nearly €2 trillion budget the commission has put on the table. The money will mainly come from national contributions, plus separate levies and taxes.
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There is always a fight between the commission, the European Parliament, and national capitals over the size of the package. Von der Leyen’s proposal is just the start of a two-year arm wrestle to agree the next EU budget, which will run from 2028 until 2034.
The EU’s powerful executive arm wants more cash for defence, border control, Ukraine, and its new competitiveness fund.
The final budget proposal was the product of several intense weeks of negotiation inside the commission’s Berlaymont headquarters, between von der Leyen and the other 26 commissioners.
The heads of each commissioner’s team had been locked in marathon talks since the start of this week. They were still going at it when von der Leyen poked her head in the door after midnight, in the early hours of Wednesday.
It is understood EU commissioners were given a final figure for how much money they had secured for their portfolios, and the full budget picture, only a few hours before it was announced.
[ Proposed €2tn EU budget would increase funding for defenceOpens in new window ]
The most controversial element of the proposal is the commission’s plan to overhaul the bloc’s big funding schemes.
Income subsidies paid to farmers under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), “cohesion” funding for roads and development projects in poorer regions, and many other schemes and grants, would all be rolled into one big national pot of money for each EU member state.
Changes to CAP, a politically sacred cow that has been a feature of the EU for more than 60 years, comes with a lot of risk. About €300 billion will be ring-fenced in the next budget for direct payments to farmers.
CAP makes up about a third of the current €1.2 trillion budget, costing €378 billion in total. Von der Leyen and agriculture commissioner Christophe Hansen both insist the reforms do not represent cuts to the income farmers receive from the EU.
Organisations representing farmers are not so sure. There is uncertainty about the amount of money that will be put aside for rural development funding and schemes promoting more environmentally conscious farming.
Farmers are concerned the size of the CAP budget could be slimmed down by stealth over time, if it becomes part of a national fund rather than a stand-alone entity.
The commission will have a tough time getting the proposed changes past the European Parliament and the 27 national capitals, which all have to approve the budget.
Governments in EU states with powerful farming lobbies, such as France, Poland and Ireland, will face huge pressure to protect CAP funds.
MEPs across the floor of the European Parliament have also kicked up about the changes. Siegfried Mureșan, the parliament’s chief negotiator on the budget, said MEPs would “reject any budget that fails to ringfence sufficient funding for both the Common Agricultural Policy and cohesion policy”.
