Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni has always been a bit of a political shape-shifter, at home a hard-right nationalist, on the European stage a more moderate conservative.
When Donald Trump was elected for a second term she hoped to rely on her more extreme right credentials to bridge the gap between Europe and the new US administration. The chaotic fracture in the long-standing transatlantic relationship since then, from trade to defence policy, has made that a lot more difficult.
Meloni will be looking to charm Trump, without publicly throwing her European counterparts under the bus, when she visits the White House on Thursday.
Sitting down with Trump in the Oval Office these days is like agreeing to appear as a guest on a bizarre politics-themed reality television show. French president Emmanuel Macron and UK prime minister Keir Starmer came out of it well. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was savaged by Trump and vice-president JD Vance in front of the rolling broadcast cameras.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin got past some awkward moments to emerge from his St Patrick’s Day visit unscathed, though he ducked a few chances to push back against Trump’s skewed perception of the European Union.
Meloni is hopeful of a warm reception. The prime minister met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida while he was holding court there in the weeks before his inauguration. The Italian was also the only EU leader to attend the inauguration itself in January. She has a political admirer in entrepreneur and X owner Elon Musk, who until recently at least was one of the key figures in Trump’s orbit.
During the White House meeting Meloni is likely to play up the US footprint of big Italian companies such as oil and gas firm Eni and defence contractor Leonardo.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, is responsible for the bloc’s trade policy so Meloni has no remit to go and cut any deals on tariffs. But it is hard to imagine the topic won’t come up.
Meloni is one of the loudest voices calling for caution in how the EU responds to import duties Trump has slapped on nearly all goods coming from Europe. She has raised the idea of a US-Europe summit to reset the relationship.
“Her position is that Europe should do everything to minimise whatever provocative stance Trump has taken,” says Giovanni Orsina, professor of contemporary history at Luiss University in Rome.
The governments of Italy and Ireland have common ground there. They both want to avoid any reaction that could escalate the tariff dispute into a full blown trade war. Others, such as France, believe the EU should hit back hard against Trump’s sweeping tariffs if talks go nowhere.
Meloni is still taking a risk walking into the White House, according to Orsina. It would be a “disaster” for her if Trump says something that embarrasses the prime minister, he says.
Daniele Albertazzi, a University of Surrey professor of politics who focuses on right-wing populism, feels the likelihood of Trump wanting to humiliate Meloni is very low.
He says the Italian prime minister won’t necessarily be looking to walk away from the meeting with anything concrete. Meloni will spin the Oval Office invite itself as reflecting her standing on the world stage. “She wants to be able to say: ‘I’m playing the game [in] the very top league’.”
Back in Italy Meloni has come under pressure from Matteo Salvini, a rival to her right. Meloni leads Brothers of Italy, a hard-right party with neo-fascist roots, which is the dominant player in the coalition government. Domestically she has pursued a hard line on migration and LGBT+ rights.
On the European stage Meloni has been conscious to tack closer to the political mainstream. She has been a firm backer of Ukraine in its war with Russia, and has a close working relationship with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. A commission spokeswoman said the pair were in “regular contact” in the run-up to the White House visit.
Salvini, the far-right leader of League, a smaller Eurosceptic party in the coalition government, has been much more vocally pro-Trump. He has tried to build up his own rapport with Vance in an effort to undermine Meloni’s ambition to be a key interlocutor to the US. Salvini can afford to play to his smaller, more radical voter base without having to worry about keeping von der Leyen or other European leaders onside.
Few expect this recent agitation from Salvini will jeopardise the coalition, which has been stable over the last two and a half years. “Is he going to bring down the government? Absolutely not,” Albertazzi says.
Lasting governments can be difficult to put together in Italy, so the League would pay a price at the polls if it is seen as the reason the existing one collapses. Salvini and Meloni know that.
