European leaders are expected to agree to ramp up defence spending and reaffirm support for Ukraine at a summit on Thursday, after Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid to Kyiv fuelled concerns the European Union can no longer rely on US protection.
Leaders of the EU’s 27 countries will be joined by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at a summit in Brussels, although Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orban, a Trump ally, may veto a unanimous statement backing Kyiv.
While the summit will offer words of support and plan for an increase in defence spending, Europe is not expected to be able to fully replace suspended US aid. Washington provided more than 40 per cent of military aid to Ukraine last year, according to Nato, some of which Europe could not easily provide.
The meeting takes place against a backdrop of dramatic defence policy decisions driven by fears that Russia, emboldened by its war in Ukraine, may attack an EU country next and that Europe cannot rely on the US to come to its aid.
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“I want to believe that the United States will stand by us. But we have to be ready if that is not the case,” French president Emmanuel Macron said of the war in Ukraine in an address to the French nation on the eve of the summit.
In a sign of the gravity of the moment, Mr Macron said France is open to discussing extending the protection offered by its nuclear arsenal to its European partners. He stressed that Russia had become a threat for all of Europe.
“Faced with this world of danger, remaining a spectator would be madness,” Mr Macron said.
On Tuesday, the parties aiming to form Germany’s next government agreed to loosen borrowing limits to allow billions of euros of extra defence spending.
The European Commission – the EU’s executive body – also unveiled proposals that it said could mobilise up to €800 billion for European defence, including a plan to borrow up to €150 billion to lend to EU governments.
“It gives more fiscal space to member states for military expenditure and it gives the possibility for joint procurement on a European level,” commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday. “And also very importantly, it also benefits Ukraine.”
Mr Trump has said Europe must take more responsibility for its security and previously suggested the US would not protect a Nato ally that did not spend enough on defence.
His decision to shift from staunch US support for Ukraine to a more conciliatory stance towards Moscow has deeply alarmed Europeans who see Russia as the biggest threat to their security.
Diplomats expect leaders at the summit to give the commission’s proposals a broad welcome and instruct officials to quickly turn them into draft legislation. EU members will then have to agree on the nitty-gritty, which will not be straightforward.
On Ukraine, almost all EU leaders are keen to reassure Mr Zelenskiy that he can still rely on Europe for support after his bruising Oval Office clash with Mr Trump last week.
But EU members have so far not been able to agree on a proposal by foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to put a figure on the military aid they will pledge to Ukraine this year.
It is unclear whether the text on Ukraine will be endorsed by all 27 leaders, due to a veto threat from Mr Orban, who has kept friendly ties to the Kremlin and endorsed Mr Trump’s approach on Ukraine.
In a letter to European Council president Antonio Costa dated Saturday, Mr Orban said there were “strategic differences in our approach to Ukraine that cannot be bridged”.
Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, who has also rejected military aid to Ukraine, repeated that he wanted a mention of reopening Russian gas transit through Ukraine – a major route of energy for Slovakia which Kyiv stopped this year – as part of summit conclusions.
“If that is there we have no reason, of course, to block conclusions,” Mr Fico said before heading to the summit. – Reuters
