Europe

Marine Le Pen warns France will come to standstill for a year if National Rally party fails to win absolute majority

Far-right party projected to fall significantly short of 289 seats required to push through its agenda easily

Marine Le Pen French member of parliament for the far-right party Rassemblement National. Photograph: Yoan Valat/EPA

Fri Jul 5 2024 - 15:13

Marine Le Pen dismissed projections that show her far-right National Rally (RN) party is set to fall well short of an absolute majority in the French legislative election and warned of a “quagmire” if she doesn’t get a mandate to govern.

The National Rally and its allies are on course to win 190-250 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly on Sunday, based on five surveys released between Wednesday and Friday. That would be significantly below the 289 that would enable it to pass Bills easily and push through its agenda.

“We have serious chances of getting an absolute majority,” Ms Le Pen told French television channel CNews, adding that her party won more than twice the projected number of seats in the last vote two years ago. “If no one gets an absolute majority, and we’re the only ones who can, no Bill will be passed. That’s why I’m talking about a quagmire.”

She warned that “the country will be at a standstill” until president Emmanuel Macron is legally able to dissolve parliament again in a year.

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The left-wing New Popular Front alliance is now projected to win 140-200 seats, according to the five surveys, while Mr Macron’s group is on track for 95-162.

[ A year of chaotic paralysis might be the best France can hope for ]

France has been shaken by the prospect of the far right taking control of the government after spending more than 50 years keeping it at bay. It has forced several other parties that had been rivals to come up with a largely unified electoral front in order to see off the threat.

There have been some tensions on the streets as campaigning ramps up ahead of Sunday. Interior minister Gerald Darmanin said there had been more than 50 attacks on politicians and activists, leading to some 30 arrests.

He told BFM TV on Friday the profiles of the attackers ranged from ultra-left and ultra-right militants to members of other political parties to individuals who appeared to have spontaneously lost their tempers. He has also previously warned of possible disorder on election night, when a number of gatherings are planned.

There are 501 districts still up for grabs in Sunday’s run-offs. The National Rally and its allies already won 39 races outright in the first round after they garnered 33.2 per cent of the total vote.

Mr Macron’s centrist alliance and the New Popular Front strategically pulled more than 200 candidates from ballots this week to avoid splitting opposition to the far right in an attempt at building what is known in France as the Republican front.

The latest projections suggest the strategy is working. Polling companies had previously given ranges that stretched as high as 305 seats for the National Rally and its allies after first-round voting ended last Sunday.

Elabe published a poll on Friday, while Ifop, Odoxa and OpinionWay released surveys on Thursday. Toluna-Harris Interactive revealed its findings on Wednesday.

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