When three Polish opposition groups come together for coalition talks on Monday they have a parliamentary majority – but as yet no mandate to form a new government.
Two weeks after voters appeared to turn against the two-term ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, Polish president Andrzej Duda is holding the country in suspense.
Duda has announced that the new parliament will convene on November 13th, almost a month after the October 15th general election. But he will not say until that sitting just who he will ask to try forming a new government: outgoing prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki – whose PiS party finished first but lacks a majority – or the opposition block lead by Donald Tusk.
“We have two serious candidates for prime minister,” said Duda, a PiS appointee.
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Opposition parties dispute this reading of the result. After a divisive eight years none of the opposition say they are prepared to even talk, let alone rule, with PiS. Senior PiS figures say they remain optimistic that they can pull over enough smaller parties to close the 37-seat gap for a parliamentary majority.
This ambition has been dismissed by the Tusk camp – but it has added to post-election nervousness.
After preliminary talks with Duda, Donald Tusk, who served as prime minister a decade ago before moving to Brussels, said it is now up to the president to “quickly acknowledge the reality that there is a majority in parliament”.
A new Tusk-lead government will “mean a quick payment of funds to Poland”, he said, referring to around €35.4 billion in Covid-era funding that Brussels has frozen until Warsaw addresses EU rule-of-law concerns over court reforms.
Add in blocked payments from cohesion funds, intended to boost the standard of living in poor regions, and the political standstill in Poland now has a price tag of around €60 billion. Some of this will lapse unless Poland draws it down by year-end.
Reversing controversial reforms to the country’s judiciary system will be a complicated and time-consuming business, though Mr Tusk has implied the process can begin swiftly and without legislation to release funds. That has prompted PiS caretaker prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki to accuse the European Commission of “blackmail” and blocking funding to PiS-government Poland for political reasons rather than legal concerns.
For Robert Biedroń, one of the New Left leaders hoping to rule with Mr Tusk, the “foundations are already in place” for a new Polish government. “Everything is on the right track and our government-forming talks will continue,” he said. “We will definitely come to an agreement, divide the tasks and find common ground in this regard.”
The choreography of the next two weeks will have consequences far beyond Poland’s borders. Last week Mr Morawiecki insisted that, as long as PiS has a say, Warsaw will uphold its veto on the European Union migration pact. This foresees member states accepting migrant quotas or making a financial contribution to their upkeep elsewhere.
Meanwhile opposition parties in Warsaw fear as-yet unseen consequences of Duda extending the life of the PiS-controlled parliament to its constitutional maximum of 30 days after the election. Others fear a further extended period of uncertainty if the president gives PiS the first refusal at forming a government.
Opposition leaders are throttling their criticism of the president – for now at least. Even if they make it into power they will have to live with his presidential veto until his term ends in 2025.
Meanwhile Duda knows that his political future – in particular any hopes of an international job – could hinge on the good will of a Tusk administration.
