Danish election: complicated coalition talks loom after election deadlock

Denmark’s Social Democrats and outgoing prime minister Mette Frederiksen finished first in Tuesday’s snap election, but a deadlock result leaves her return to power hinging on an untested centrist alliance.

Exit polls suggested Denmark’s centre-left “red” block finished first with 80 seats to 79 for the “blue” centre-right bloc, with neither camp holding the 90 seats required for a majority in the 179-seat parliament.

The election result, and a split in the centre-right camp, could make Ms Frederiksen’s predecessor – two-time prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen – the kingmaker in Coalition talks.

Mr Rasmussen’s new Moderates party came from nowhere to take 9.3 per cent, almost all at the expense of his former political home, the conservative-liberal Venstre.

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It finished second on 13.5 per cent, a disastrous result that will leave it struggling to be heard in Coalition talks.

Both Mr Rasmussen and Ms Frederiksen have spoken out in favour of a centrist alliance, with both framing their most viable path back to power as in the national interest at a time of unprecedented challenges.

Mr Rasmussen has yet to declare whether he favours joining a Coalition led by the right or the left and is likely to drive a high price for his parliamentary support.

Just two months ago his Moderates polled at just two per cent, but surged in the final weeks. Mr Rasmussen said he does not plan to be prime minister for a third time but – with an eye on the Coalition poker ahead – said: “It’s better to be a joker than a joke.”

Bridging the centrist gap in Danish politics, and moving beyond minority coalitions and movable majorities, could mean complicated Coalition talks loom in the weeks and months ahead. With just a two per cent hurdle for parliamentary representation, some 14 parties were competing in the election.

Ms Frederiksen called the election to avoid a vote of no confidence by political allies over the illegal cull in November 2020 of 15 million mink amid fears virus mutations in the animals could undermine the country’s Covid-19 vaccination programme.

A parliament-appointed commission in June said the move was based on “grossly misleading” statements and illegal. However the commission agreed with the prime minister that she had not broken the law intentionally. Still, a multibillion compensation bill looms for over 1,000 former mink farmers and their devastated industry.

The outgoing government’s embrace of a tough immigration and asylum police – repatriations to Syria and asylum processing in Rwanda – saw voter abandon Denmark’s far-right on Tuesday.

Exit polls suggested the Danish People’s Party scraped into parliament with just 2.5 per cent – a collapse from 21 per cent in 2015.

After an election dominated by climate concerns, inflation and healthcare, exit polls suggested that turnout was down slightly, with 81 per cent voting – down from 81.6 per cent in 2019.

After considerable movement in Tuesday evening exit polls, and a large number of early votes cast before election day and yet to be counted, Denmark’s two public broadcasters both warned that actual results could shift before a final result is announced, possibly on Wednesday.