Last year has been confirmed to be “the warmest year on record globally, and the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees above its pre-industrial level”, according to the world’s leading observation agencies.
The EU climate change service, Copernicus, released data on Friday confirming the 1.5-degree threshold was exceeded for the full year. This was supported by figures from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the US space agency Nasa, the World Meteorological Organisation and the UK Met Office – among others.
The average temperature in 2024 was 1.6 degrees above preindustrial levels. That is a jump of 0.1 degrees from 2023, which was also a record hot year and represents levels of heat never experienced by modern humans.
Copernicus scientists monitored key climate indicators and documented unprecedented daily, monthly and annual temperature records throughout 2024. The trend – meaning the world is hotter than before the industrial revolution, or the mid-1850s – does not mean a key Paris Agreement threshold of a rise of 1.5 degrees has been breached. This has to happen over a number of years, but the level of warming has alarmed scientists.
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“Human-induced climate change remains the primary driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures; while other factors, such as the warming El Niño Southern Oscillation, also contributed to the unusual temperatures,” Copernicus said.
Its director, Carlo Buontempo, added: “All of the internationally produced global temperature data sets show 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850. Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence. The future is in our hands – swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate.”
Last year was part of a pattern of sustained overheating: “Each year in the last decade is one of the 10 warmest on record. We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5-degree level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
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High global temperatures coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, “meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people”, she said.
Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said: “This record needs to be a reality check. The climate is heating to levels we’ve spent years trying to avoid because countries are still burning huge amounts of oil, gas and coal.
“A year of extreme weather showed just how dangerous life is at 1.5 degrees. The Valencia floods, US hurricanes, Philippines typhoons and Amazon drought are just four disasters last year that were worsened by climate change. There are many, many more,” she added.
The world doesn’t need to come up with a magical solution to stop things from getting worse in 2025, Dr Otto said. “We know exactly what we need to do to transition away from fossil fuels, halt deforestation and make societies more resilient to the changes in the climate we see in so clearly in this report.”
Climate scientist Dr Paulo Ceppi said it was unlikely that 2025 would be as hot as 2024, ‘but people shouldn’t think that’s climate change hitting pause or plateauing’
Prof Joeri Rogelj, director of Research at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute said a single year exceeding 1.5 degrees “does not mean we’ve reached 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, it does mean we’re getting dangerously close.”
“The Paris Agreement sets limits to global warming not out of convenience but out of the necessity to limit harm to and suffering of people. Even if we surpass 1.5 degrees in the long term, these reasons don’t change. Every fraction of a degree – whether 1.4, 1.5, or 1.6 degrees – brings more harm to people and ecosystems, underscoring the continued need for ambitious emissions cuts.”
The case for action makes more sense than ever, he said, with the cost of solar and wind energy falling rapidly and now cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries.
Climate scientist Dr Paulo Ceppi said it was unlikely that 2025 would be as hot as 2024, “but people shouldn’t think that’s climate change hitting pause or plateauing”.
The recent heat was exacerbated by a decrease in the amount of cloud and sea ice, causing Earth to absorb more sunlight. This confirms climate model predictions of melting sea ice and shrinking cloud cover as the world warms.
Dr Ceppi added: “Countries have the power to bring global warming to a halt by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. This must happen as quickly as possible to give us some hope of preventing further global climate change catastrophes.”
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to increase and reached record annual levels in 2024, at 422 parts per million and 1897 parts per billion respectively.
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