Zaajer has credentials

Derby number 220 and rarely has there been a more open renewal

Derby number 220 and rarely has there been a more open renewal. The most famous classic in the world, run around the most famous mile and a half in the world, may have an outstanding colt lurking today but this will be no coronation of an already proven champion a la Nijinksy or Mill Reef.

Instead befuddled bookmakers are betting 5 to 1 and better on a field that has more than the usual number of question marks hovering overhead. At least one question mark seems to have been cleared up as Saffron Walden has been taken out of tomorrow's French Derby allowing his stable companion Tchaikovsky to run in his place at Chantilly.

Epsom miraculously escaped the worst of the heavy showers that marauded through the south of England yesterday but the ground remains officially good to soft. The indications are that Saffron Walden will take his chance but nothing can be confirmed until this morning. Aidan O'Brien, chasing a landmark first Derby success, will be eager to run but will also be anxiously looking at the skies.

"If the ground stays as is, Saffron Walden will probably run but we wouldn't want any overnight rain," said owner John Magnier. Jockey Michael Kinane added: "Provided the heavens do not open Saffron Walden will run. I have got to be positive about him staying."

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Should Saffron Walden take his chance, he has a lot going for him. The most expensive yearling sold in Europe in 1997, Saffron Walden boasts the only Group One winning form in the field courtesy of an impressive defeat of Enrique and Orpen in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Kinane is also one of the best big race riders in the world but doubts persist and not just about the ground.

Pedigree analysts give Saffron Walden no chance of staying the trip which is significant since the colt's sire Sadlers Wells, so dominant in every other major race, has yet to sire an Epsom Derby winner. Saffron Walden also appears a horse who could have difficulties coping with Epsom's notorious hills and cambers while it's hardly encouraging that Kinane had little hesitation plumping to ride Orpen in the Irish Guineas. It was hardly the move of a jockey thinking of a prospective Derby winner.

All of which is not to suggest that Saffron Walden won't win. Merely that he has a lot to prove yet, too much to inspire real confidence.

Frankie Dettori, yet to win this race, will ride the probable favourite Dubai Millennium for Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin. Unbeaten in three starts, the recent rain has been perfect for the heavy topped colt with the name that will attract coincidence punters. Confidence is high in his talent but in truth he has beaten little so far.

But it is that type of Derby. The Lingfield Trial supplied last year's winner High-Rise and Lucido has been supplemented at a cost of £75,000. That sign of confidence was boosted by Richard Quinn's decision to ride him, in the process turning down Housemaster, Salford Express and Brancaster.

Quinn has had 10 previous rides in the race unlike the brilliant American Gary Stevens who has his first on Beat All, a progressive horse but with a liking for a fast surface. Irishman Darragh O'Donohoe also has his first Derby spin on Godolphin's second string Adair.

But if forced to take two against the field, this correspondent suggests Oath and Zaajer. Oath's trainer Henry Cecil and his jockey Kieren Fallon landed yesterday's Oaks, so they are in form and Oath put up a good time when winning Chester's Dee Stakes.

Zaajer however is a more attractive price and beat the subsequent Italian Derby winner Mukhalif in his only start to date. Ed Dunlop has never trained a Derby runner before but Zaajer has been switched here from a possible French Derby tilt, is guaranteed to act on a soft surface and is improving rapidly. In the most open Derby for years, those are credentials as solid as anyone else's.

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column