Winter of content, and spring not far behind

On Rugby:And so the good times continue to roll. Ireland clearly fed off the strong starts made by the provinces in October, and their excellence in November assuredly helped Munster and Leinster through the dark and demanding mid-winter. Now Ireland look like assembling for the Six Nations buoyed by those two progressing to the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup.

The one caveat has been the disappointing way Ulster's campaign petered out - even the sight of them virtually throwing in the towel in the rainlashed latter stages of their defeat to Llanelli, their first at Ravenhill since being beaten by Biarritz 365 days before and their heaviest since the 55-25 thrashing by Saracens in October 2000.

For sure, there were mitigating factors, not least a spate of injuries.

Key setpieces having failed them when Llanelli had been reduced to 14 men by the sinbinning of Alix Popham in the first half, the effects of fighting an ultimately losing cause into an ever strengthening gale understandably took their toll.

Among a myriad of factors, though, some of their expanding international contingent did not maintain their form after returning to Ulster from the November Tests, notably Isaac Boss and Neil Best, even if the latter gave an improved effort on Saturday.

While the effects of this mightn't be visible when Eddie O'Sullivan announces his initial 32-man squad for the Six Nations today, it may well do when the Irish coach selects his 22 tomorrow week for the opener away to Wales, the superior form of Simon Easterby and Denis Hickie liable to earn them starting positions ahead of Neil Best and Andrew Trimble.

Furthermore, of course, Wales will be fairly buoyant themselves after the manner of Llanelli's qualification, and even more so if the Ospreys join them in the last eight.

Nevertheless, with Munster reaching the quarter-finals for a record ninth year in a row, Leinster have joined them for the fifth time in the last six years. The vast bulk of the Ireland squad therefore have real meaning to their seasons right up to the end of April and hopefully beyond.

The Irish duo have qualified for the last eight along with the unbeaten Llanelli and Biarritz, who both look like near certainties to obtain home quarter-finals.

Seven other teams are thus in contention for the remaining four quarter-final places, namely Wasps, Castres, Stade Français Paris, Ospreys, Sale Sharks, Leicester and Northampton.

Leinster have the disadvantage of completing their programme ahead of all the other pools on Friday night and therefore their final points tally will be a target for other potential pool winners. Even so, they know a bonus-point win away to Gloucester would ensure them a home tie in the last eight.

That would be a tall order, for home pride and their litany of English likely lads will compel Gloucester to give the game their best shot in front of a packed Kingsholm, but then again Leinster are the kind of team that invariably score tries and therefore usually give themselves a chance of securing a bonus point. In all four of their pool wins last season, and in three of their four pool wins this season, they have done so.

Victory without a bonus point would leave Wasps and Leicester knowing a bonus-point win, equally demanding away to Castres and Munster respectively, would take them above Leinster on 24 points by dint of tries scored. Having dipped their bread against Treviso, Wasps have scored 22 tries, with Leicester and Leinster on 20 apiece.

Munster also know a win of any kind would ensure them a home quarter-final. A defeat could do so as well, provided it came with a losing bonus point and they at least match Leicester's try tally on Saturday, as they outscored Leicester by two tries to one in their 21-19 win in Welford Road in October.

That would come with the proviso that Wasps don't win in Castres, who can still supplant their English visitors in Pool One provided they win Saturday's head-to-head by more than seven points, and helpfully that game kicks off four hours before the Thomond Park game.

Procuring a home quarter-final may not involve a huge financial carrot for Leinster and Munster but at least it would remove the risk of putting their European Cup campaigns on the line away to the likes of Biarritz (in San Sebastian, where Munster lost two seasons ago), Llanelli, Stade Français, Wasps or, of course, each other. If they are to meet again, the later the better.

The goalposts appear to have shifted with regard to where Munster or Leinster might stage a "home" quarter-final with Thomond Park and Lansdowne Road out of the running, insofar as they appear to have more leeway from the IRFU to host these putative games in smaller venues such as Musgrave Park and Donnybrook.

Financially, this would prove far less rewarding than moving a tie to a bigger stadium in Britain or even France (Toulouse has been briefly discussed by the Leinster hierarchy). But it would surely give them their best chance of progressing, and whatever about short-term financial considerations, that has to be the primary objective.

One ventures that if the respective supporters were asked, the majority would favour the reduced chances of acquiring a ticket and with it the enhanced chances of reaching the semi-finals, rather than the greater likelihood of a ticket at increased expense.

Besides which, the provinces are entitled to a little leeway. They have been regularly packing out grounds since the beginning of December, most notably Lansdowne Road for The Last Stand on New Year's Eve. It is also partly of the IRFU's making that neither Lansdowne Road nor Thomond Park is available.

gthornley@irish-times.ie