United count blessings and seek pot luck

One kick from elimination. That was how Alex Ferguson described the situation facing his players on Wednesday night. When the one kick in question came, however, Dynamo Kiev's George Demetradze miss-hit it. Given the lateness of the chance, had Demetradze guided the ball in rather than wide, the club founded as a branch of the Ukrainian Electrical Workers' Union would have left Manchester United sparked out of the Champions League.

United would have had celebrated company - Juventus and Barcelona both exited the competition - but because of Demetradze's memorable miss, when the draw for the next phase of the Champions League takes place at midday in the Forum Park Hotel in Geneva, United will be one of the 16 names awaiting division into the next four groups of four. Their light is still on.

Joining the Mancunians from England's Premiership will be Leeds United - responsible for the scalp of Barcelona - and Arsenal, whose qualification for this phase was ensured in Rome against Lazio a fortnight ago. That is some achievement for the Premiership, although it needs to be put in a Spanish context - the Primera Liga also has three qualifiers and Real Madrid, Valencia and Deportivo La Coruna each won their group.

With clubs from one country unable to be drawn against each other at this stage, it is highly likely that both Leeds and Manchester United will, as second place finishers, meet Spanish opposition. That is one of the UEFA conditions of the draw. Another is that clubs who have been in the same group first time around - i.e. Leeds and Milan - cannot be drawn together again.

A third UEFA rule that will affect the three English clubs is that at least one of them will be drawn in Group C or D, as they will have to play on a different night to their domestic colleagues - that is about maximising television revenue.

Then there is the climate affect. Clubs from most northerly Europe, for seasonal purposes, will be assigned position four in the group to allow them to play away from home the second match of this phase, in early December, and the third, in mid-February. Normally this would concern Nordic clubs, but as none have qualified the rule only affects Spartak Moscow, runners-up to Real Madrid having beaten the European champions 1-0 on Tuesday in Russia.

Most significant of all, though, is the UEFA co-efficient ranking each club has. This amounts to seeding and takes in how each club has fared for the previous five years in European football. Real Madrid, for example, will be ranked first. Bayern Munich, Valencia and Milan are the next three of this week's group winners to have the highest co-efficients.

The next four group winners - Deportivo, Arsenal, Anderlecht and Sturm Graz form the second `pot' of teams. Manchester United are in the third, along with Lazio, Spartak Moscow and Paris St Germain. Leeds are in the fourth with Olympic Lyon, Galatasaray and Panathinaikos.

It may seem a complex procedure, but it is relatively simple. Yet at the same time it offers numerous permutations a couple of which are: Arsenal have a 50/50 chance of meeting Paris St Germain and Nicolas Anelka because they cannot draw Manchester United or Lazio from the third pot. It is either PSG or Spartak Moscow.

Similarly, with Arsenal and Anderlecht in the second pot, United can only draw Deportivo or Sturm Graz and would no doubt prefer the Austrians. If, however, United are facing the Spanish champions it means they will have avoided Real Madrid and Valencia. In turn, that means they will be meeting either Bayern Munich or AC Milan.

Thankfully one fixture that cannot happen is Leeds v Galatasaray. They are in the same pot.

When asked on Wednesday who he preferred to meet Ferguson just shrugged but whoever it is, in the first two games that are played before Christmas, United will be without Andy Cole who is to undergo an operation on an Achilles shortly. "Andy has been carrying the problem for some time," said Ferguson, "but now we're at the end of the first phase of the Champions League, it's a good time to do it. We hope he'll be back for the second four games."