Ulster to keep home record intact

European Cup:  Ulster v Llanelli, Today, Ravenhill, Kick-off - 1.35pm, On TV - Sky Sports 1: The last thing a team wants in and around February and March is to be out of contention for both the Magners Celtic League and the Heineken European Cup. Mark McCall and his Ulster side have done good work in the league, but once again they find themselves with the thin end of the wedge as Llanelli come visiting with full intentions to win and seal their European Cup qualification.

Ulster's future lies with possibilities rather than probabilities. They must win in Ravenhill with a bonus point to hold out any hope of qualifying for the knockout stages of the competition.

They must then do the same again next week when they jet over to Toulouse. In that respect, Llanelli are in the driving seat and a win this afternoon would put them into the last eight with a match to spare.

The problem with the Welsh side is that it has been showing two faces of late. While they have been comfortable in the Heineken Cup, they had a terrible Christmas as they followed up the historic win in Toulouse with three straight defeats at the Ospreys, Cardiff Blues and Edinburgh. That along with the spectacular home record that Ulster has in Belfast should give McCall some cause for positive thinking. Ulster has not lost at home since this time last year when Biarritz beat them on their way to the final.

Ulster makes two changes to the team that beat Glasgow last Saturday. Paul Steinmetz returns at inside centre with Kevin Maggs returning to the bench, while Kieran Campbell starts at scrumhalf. The injury to Ireland and first choice scrumhalf Isaac Boss has still not cleared up and consequently Paul Marshall acts as scrumhalf cover on the bench.

Andrew Trimble again begins the game at outside centre with Tommy Bowe on one flank and Paul McKenzie on the other. The front row with the two Bests and Bryan Young remains intact with Justin Harrison and Matt McCullough again the very effective second row partnership.

Fullback Morgan Stoddart is the surprise inclusion in the Llanelli side. The 22-year-old has come back strongly from an early pre-season injury setback when he broke a leg, but since returning has been in eye-catching form. He comes in for Garan Evans, while Mark Jones replacing Darren Daniel on the wing is the only other change in the backs.

In the forwards there is an entirely new front row with Iestyn Thomas, Matthew Rees and Deacon Manu coming in, while Gavin Thomas returns to the back row in place of James Bater. Mark Jones and Dwayne Peel in the midfield, and a lively back line, makes Llanelli a dangerous side.

Regan King and Daffyd James are capable of keeping any defence busy, even Ulster, who should come through this one, but perhaps without the much-needed bonus point .

ULSTER:M Bartholomeusz; T Bowe, A Trimble, P Steinmetz, P McKenzie; P Wallace, K Campbell; B Young, R Best, S Best (capt), J Harrison, M McCullough, N Best, K Dawson, R Wilson. Replacements: P Shields, J Fitzpatrick, T Barker, R Caldwell, P Marshall, A Larkin, K Maggs.

LLANELLI SCARLETS:M Stoddart, D James, R King, G Evans; M Jones; S Jones, D Peel; I Thomas, M Rees, D Manu, A Jones, S McLeod, S Easterby, G Thomas, A Popham. Replacements: J Davies, K Owens, V Cooper, D Jones, C Stuart-Smith, C Thomas, M Watkins.

Referee:Joel Jutge (France).

Leading points scorers.D Humphreys (Ulster) 52; S Jones (Llanelli) 49.

Leading try scorers:A Trimble (Ulster) 3; M Jones 2, D Daniel 2, S Easterby 2, D James 2 (all Llanelli)

Verdict:Ulster to keep record intact.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Llanelli 20 Toulouse 19; London Irish 29 Ulster 13; Llanelli 21 Ulster 15; Toulouse 37 London Irish 17; London Irish 25 Llanelli 32; Ulster 30 Toulouse 3; Ulster 29 London Irish 13; Toulouse 34 Llanelli 41.

REMAINING FIXTURES

Today: Ulster v Llanelli, 1.35; London Irish v Toulouse, 1.35. Jan 21st: Toulouse v Ulster; 2.0; Llanelli v London Irish, 2.0.

• Two bonus point wins for Ulster, at home to Llanelli today and then away to Toulouse, could see them squeeze through, but it seems a tall order. With London Irish at home, victory in either game would put Llanelli through, most probably with home advantage in the last eight.

• Ulster and Ireland second row Matt McCullough is to answer two complaints of alleged racial abuse of London Irish player Delon Armitage - at the Madejski Stadium on Saturday, December 9th, 2006, and at Ravenhill on Friday, December 15th, 2006 - on Wednesday January 24th at ERC headquarters in Dublin.