Ulster in sight of English breakthrough

European Cup Pool Five/ London Irish v Ulster (Madejski Stadium, 3.30 On TV: Sky Sports 3)If ever Ulster are to boldly go where they've never gone before, and win on English soil for the first time in the Heineken European Cup, this looks as good an opportunity as they've had.

With pool pacesetters Llanelli and Toulouse set to take points off each other over the next two weekends, a double over Irish would also go some way toward making Ulster serious contenders for a first quarter-final appearance since they won the trophy in 1999.

Such are the small margins for error in this competition that, most probably, a win today is imperative, all the more so given they finish their pool in Toulouse. Based on their case history, it is a tall order.

In eight treks to England, Ulster have shipped a fair few thumpings, and the average score from those eight games is an imposing 44-14. A tad ominously, five of those have been in London (three at Wasps, two at Saracens) though they came close last year before unluckily emerging empty-handed from an 18-10 defeat to Saracens.

Ulster, admittedly, look a significantly changed outfit from then, as much mentally as in personnel. They took the quantum stride of winning a Celtic League title and have largely maintained form this season.

Even more critically, the likes of Neil Best, Bryan Young, Rory Best, Simon Best, Paddy Wallace and Andrew Trimble have been exposed to Test rugby against Southern Hemisphere opposition and hence surely bring greater self-belief, individually and collectively.

Ulster have lost only three matches this season - away to Edinburgh, Munster and Llanelli - and go into this game with just one defeat in their last six games.

In contrast, London Irish have yet to rediscover the thrilling, ball-in-hand, pacy and prolific form of the second half of last season, when they did more than anyone to reinvigorate an overrated, one-dimensional Zurich Premiership. They go into this game at the foot of the pool and with seven losses in their last nine games.

Against that, there were clear signs in their five-try 40-5 rout of Northampton in their last league outing, two weeks ago, of a return to form.

Brian Smith's selection is much closer to that line-up, with five players returning to the starting XV from the understrength team that abandoned all interest in the EDF Energy Cup in Cardiff last week.

Most significantly, Mike Catt returns as captain at inside centre to offer a guiding hand to the 20-year-old Irish-qualified Shane Geraghty. Son of a proud Mayo father, the gifted outhalf-cum-centre Geraghty has been named in the English Sevens squad and it seems only a matter of time before either the land of his ancestry or the land of his birth names him in an A squad, which will be the point of no return.

His third start at outhalf will be keenly watched, and he will be further helped by the return of Paul Hodgson at scrumhalf, while up front loosehead Neil Hatley, hooker Robbie Russell and blindside Kieran Roche also return.

Roche adds another dimension alongside Bob Casey and Nick Kennedy, statistically still the pick of Premiership locks at lineout time.

Furthermore, the ex-Springbok prop Faan Rautenbach and talented Puma centre Gonzalo Tiesi are back on the bench after long-term injuries.

No team has ever qualified for the knockout stages after losing their opening two games, but in declaring a strong hand, Smith has backed up London Irish's clear targeting of this game, in what is their last-chance saloon.

Ulster coach Mark McCall has warned that Irish's current standing demands that they go not only for a win but also for the bonus point, and predicts they will throw the ball about.

With the pace of in-form Delon Armitage, Samoan winger Sailosi Tagicakibau and a rejuvenated Justin Bishop, swinging from the hip, with little to lose, Irish could be dangerous, though it's a decided hindrance that Ricky Flutey, their gifted and prolific playmaking outhalf, is still sidelined with a calf injury.

The key, as Justin Harrison admitted on the Hook and Pope TV show last Wednesday night, will be Ulster's defence.

"Most games are won by defence," he reasoned, and all the more so on the road in this competition - witness Munster's win in Welford Road.

If Ulster set an aggressive tempo, defend in the Exiles' faces and prevent them offloading in the tackle, they'll be most of the way there.

Another challenge for Harrison and co, as he admitted, will be to negate one of Irish's prime strengths, the lineout.

Although Stephen Ferris's absence will be felt, if ever there was a game for Kieron Dawson then this one against his long-time employers is surely it, as it will be for their talisman David Humphreys.

And the fitness of Andrew Trimble, in tandem with the returning Tommy Bowe, means Ulster have all their main attacking weapons primed.

Yep, if ever they are going to break new ground, you sense this is their chance.

LONDON IRISH:D Armitage; J Bishop, S Mapusua, M Catt (capt), S Tagicakibau; S Geraghty, P Hodgson; N Hatley, R Russell, T Lea'aetoa; N Kennedy, R Casey; K Roche, S Armitage, J Leguizamon. Replacements: M Collins, D Coetzee, F Rautenbach, J Hudson, P Murphy, G Tiesi, B Everitt.

ULSTER RUGBY: B Cunningham; T Bowe, P Steinmetz, P Wallace, A Trimble; D Humphreys, I Boss; B Young, R Best, S Best (capt); J Harrison, M McCullough; N Best, K Dawson, R Wilson. Replacements: P Shields, J Fitzpatrick, T Barker, N McMillan, K Campbell, K Maggs, M Bartholomeusz.

Referee: Joël Jutge(France).

Previous meetings: None.

Results so far: London Irish- 25-32 v Llanelli (h); 17-37 v Toulouse (a). Ulster- 30-3 v Toulouse (h), 15-21 v Llanelli (a).

Leading try scorers: London Irish- Delon Armitage 2. Ulster- Andrew Trimble 2.

Leading points scorers: London Irish- Barry Everitt 15. Ulster- David Humphreys 30.

Betting(Paddy Power): 13/10 London Irish, 20/1 Draw, 4/7 Ulster. Handicap (= London Irish +4) 10/11 London Irish, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ulster.

Forecast: Ulster to win.