Subplots add more intrigue to power play

RUGBY/Leinster v Munster:SKIN AND hair will surely fly and, most likely, there will be blood. Even if pitched against each other in a car park in front of the proverbial two men and a dog and tossed a balloon, these two would long since have gone hammer and tongs, but now everyone has bought into the Leinster-Munster zeitgeist and an expectant full house will be licking their lips come tea-time.

Given the choice, both the European champions and the equally under-cooked Magners League champions would exchange a defeat this evening for a win next week from tricky assignments against England’s most in-form Heineken Cup entrants, London Irish and Northampton. Yet that won’t matter a whit once the first seismic hits go in, as no fixture offers more in the way of bragging rights. This, after all, is a meeting of two sides who have won three of the last four Heineken Cups. It is a meeting of Euro superpowers. And both know how much it means to their supporters.

Amid the subplots are a host of match-ups – Jonathan Sexton v Ronan O’Gara, Eoin Reddan v Tomás O’Leary, Cian Healy v Marcus Horan, Leo Cullen v Donncha O’Callaghan, Shane Jennings v Niall Ronan and, come to think of it, John and Denis Fogarty. Oft-likened to brothers fighting, tonight it literally could be so.

A quasi-final trial, this is a huge game for Sexton, Reddan and Healy. The emerging Sexton/O’Gara debate revives memories of former ones involving the merits of Ollie Campbell/Tony Ward and, more recently, O’Gara/Humphreys.

O’Gara did not have a vintage campaign last season, though typically delivered the Grand Slam coup de grace, whereas Sexton is the coming force. This one could well come down to a kick or a play by either of them.

Reddan would appear to be even further behind O’Leary, and will rarely have a better opportunity of responding to Alan Gaffney’s midweek reference to his physicality, or lack of. Healy looks to be pushing hardest. But beware Munstermen having time called on them prematurely.

Lions’ captain Paul O’Connell only makes it to the bench on his seasonal return, as do Jerry Flannery, David Wallace and Ian Dowling. Keith Earls, by contrast, starts his first game since the Lions tour, as does Brian O’Driscoll who will find himself opposite Springbok Jean de Villiers once more. Given the great man’s rustiness it would be asking too much of him to re-enact his midfield carve-up in tandem with Jamie Roberts, all the more so as de Villiers has since put in an impressive Tri-Nations’ shift.

Bizarrely, outstanding Lions full-back Rob Kearney is confined to the bench, which no doubt pleases him even less than Declan Kidney. Gaffney will have an interesting job explaining that one. Clearly both coaches, Leinster’s Michael Cheika and Munster’s Tony McGahan, have one eye on next week. Even so, one would have thought Kearney, after just one outing, was in greater need of game time than, say, Shane Horgan who has started every Leinster game.

Less surprisingly, Seán O’Brien misses out from the start, as does Malcolm O’Kelly, which may be connected to lineout options. Either way, with benches liable to be decisive, the prodigiously talented O’Brien and Wallace could have significant impact roles.

The bookies can scarcely split them. Over the last six seasons, they have shared six wins apiece and often it has merely paid to pick the team with the whiff of vengeance in their nostrils.

The only exceptions to that pattern were when Leinster completed a league double at home two seasons ago, when Munster had beaten Gloucester away in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals the week before. Similarly, a Leinster side without O’Driscoll and Luke Fitzgerald may have had one eye on their Heineken Cup quarter-final a week later away to Harlequins when Munster completed their league double at Thomond Park. There have also only been two away wins in that time.

After Croke Park last May, were Munster at home and both sides at optimum strength, they would probably be stronger favourites. Munster have taken that defeat into the new season like a boil, but the only way they will lance it is by winning the Heineken Cup – not by winning here.

Leinster are at home and Munster are not at optimum strength. On a line through their meetings with the Ospreys and the Dragons, one could make a case for saying Munster’s running game and potency is a little more developed.

But, continuing the stylistic flip over recent times, Leinster have been doggedly kicking rather than countering and grinding out wins through their defence and taking whatever three-pointers are on offer. Their improving collective self-belief has been impressive.

Collectively, Munster have the score to settle, but go through all the match-ups, and mostly it’s the Leinsterman who’ll feel he has something to prove. In another game of inches, that could be just as significant.

LEINSTER: I Nacewa, S Horgan, B O’Driscoll, G D’Arcy, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, J Fogarty, S Wright, L Cullen (capt), N Hines, K McLaughlin, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: B Jackman, M Ross, M O’Kelly, S O’Brien, S Keogh, F McFadden, R Kearney.

MUNSTER: K Earls; D Howlett, L Mafi, J de Villiers, D Hurley; R O’Gara (capt), T O’Leary; M Horan, D Fogarty, J Hayes; D O’Callaghan, M O’Driscoll; D Leamy, N Ronan, N Williams. Replacements: J Flannery, T Buckley, P O’Connell, D Wallace, P Warwick, P Stringer, I Dowling.

Referee: Simon McDowell (IRFU).

Last three seasons: (06-07) Leinster 27 Munster 20; Munster 25 Leinster 11; (07-08) Munster 3 Leinster 10; Leinster 21 Munster 12; (08-09) Leinster 0 Munster 18; Munster 22 Leinster 5; (HC s/f) Leinster 25 Munster 6.

FORMGUIDE: Leinster: 16-18 v Scarlets (a); 23-14 v Dragons (h); 18-11 v Ospreys (a); 21-19 v Edinburgh (a). Munster: 9-22 v Glasgow (a); 24-13 v Cardiff (h); 22-20 v Scarlets (a); 27-3 v Dragons (h).

Leading try scorers: Leinster: Girvan Dempsey, Isa Nacewa 1 each. Munster: Nick Williams 3, Denis Hurley 2.

Leading points scorers: Leinster: Jonathan sexton 41, Fergus McFadden 18. Munster: Jeremy Manning 30.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 4/5 Leinster, 18/1 Draw, Evens Munster. Handicap betting (= Munster + 1 pt) 10/11 Leinster, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.