Statistics, experience and form all point to Australia

Although this country seems a little blase about co-hosting the last major global sporting event of the millennium, Ireland entertaining the mighty Wallabies in front of a capacity crowd tomorrow (3.0) in one of the top three or four games of the pool stages ought to liven up old Lansdowne Road. If this doesn't rev us up, our batteries need recharging.

Based purely on the facts, there should be only one winner. Australia have won the last ten meetings since Ireland's 1979 series win Down Under. They are the tournament's second favourites, as befits the number two ranked side in the world, whereas eighth-ranked Ireland are about seventh in the betting at around 66/1. For this match alone, Ireland are a generous 7/2 chance, whereas Australia are 1/5.

Ireland come into this game on a bit of a roll, and with their mood decidedly upbeat, albeit with wins over Argentina and America, whereas the Australians' CV contains the altogether mightier scalp of the All Blacks and, evoking memories of 1991 and all that, they are leading candidates again to lift the William Webb Ellis Trophy.

Victory will almost certainly ensure the winners of qualification for the knockout stages, most probably as Pool E winners - given that in the event of two countries finishing level then their final placings are decided by the result of the pool match between them.

For all the pre-tournament phoney war and talk of a preferred knock-out route involving a play-off against the best third-placed side and a last eight meeting with France in Dublin, as kick-off nears, the prospect of victory and a swifter passage to a quarter-final in Cardiff suddenly seems more appealing.

Or at least that was the message being conveyed after the Irish management finally put speculation about their team selection to rest yesterday when unveiling their starting line-up. "We're trying to take the fastest route to the final, and that's by beating Australia," commented Donal Lenihan.

This being a long tournament, the Irish management decided that, in light of their absence from most of this week's training due to back strains, Peter Clohessy and (if passed fit) Jeremy Davidson will move to the substitutes' bench and they have been replaced by Justin Fitzpatrick and Malcolm O'Kelly.

To all intents and purposes then, after all the bluffing, it is Ireland's strongest side. "The idea of not playing your strongest side was something that had been suggested in the media. We jested about it," said Warren Gatland. "There's just a couple of key players that we wanted to make sure were rested for Cardiff," added the Irish coach, a tad mischievously and bullishly.

Ireland's gung-ho mood probably originates in the second Test in Perth last June, and, in particular, the way they finished the game with two late tries. Within minutes of that 32-26 defeat, they made a mental note of October 10th.

There was a 16-minute spell during the second period when Australia scored 20 unanswered points. Gatland conceded that Ireland's fitness levels then weren't all he would have liked them to be, but countered this with the claim (justifiable you'd have thought) that they are now.

Even so, it's tempting to see this encounter in somewhat simplistic terms on the evidence of those two Tests in June. The evidence of the first game suggests that the more Australia can take the game into fifth or sixth phase, then the likelier it is that their superb support running and continuity beyond the gain line will come into play.

Furthermore, on a balmy, dry night in Brisbane, Australia ran away with the game. Amid teeming rain in Perth, Ireland played a sensible mix of a kicking, one-ruck, territorial game; where they were largely prepared to concede the throw-in deeper inside the Wallabies' territory.

That said, Ireland's rucking in that game was probably the best it has been in any one Test for some considerable time, and Ireland may be more inclined to keep the ball in hand tomorrow than they were last week against the USA.

Australia performed poorly in desperate conditions when losing to South Africa, and last week's surfeit of handling errors on a cold wet night in Ravenhill adds to the nagging suspicion that their away form, especially in inclement weather, is susceptible.

Ultimately though, it will require an almighty effort to curtail the number of Australian throws in the Irish half, impose their own game on Australia and breach the world's best defence, while applying the kind of sustained pressure defence that can keep the Wallabies' awesome three-quarter line shackled.

You run through the respective caps and try tallies of the two three-quarter lines and you realise that the Wallabies have 187 caps and 71 tries between them, compared to their Irish counterparts' rather more modest haul of 42 caps and 13 tries.

It is the biggest example of the yawning gulf in experience between the two outfits. Hard though Ireland have tried to build a settled team in the Gatland era with one eye on the World Cup, Australia (and others) were already further down the road. Hence, the Wallabies have a cumulative 592 caps to Ireland's 274; effectively averaging almost 40 caps per man to 18.

Of course, it could be that the Australian line-out will again misfire, that their venerable front-row might wilt, that Stephen Larkham will be ring-rusty and that the Lansdowne factor will help to inspire Ireland into an almighty one-off upset. The stats, Australia's experience, explosive three-quarters, and the form-book suggest otherwise. Either way, it could be another one to tell the grandchildren about.