Can England actually do it this time? Can they, at Euro 2024, win a first trophy since 1966?
There’s a chance this is not the question you’ve been asking yourself all week but then think of September 7th, 5pm, Lansdowne Road and Ireland’s next competitive fixture is the Nations League opener against England. There are valid reasons to be interested in the progress or otherwise of Gareth Southgate’s squad in Germany over the next month or so.
And despite the historic weight of that 1966 statistic, England – judged on the here and now of qualification and selection – are deemed narrow favourites to leave Berlin on July 14th as European champions. They could be travelling to Dublin with a trophy.
Kylian Mbappe, Cristiano Ronaldo and Toni Kroos may raise an Ancelotti eyebrow at this kind of speculation and find it premature. The players of Spain and Belgium might want to have a word as well, while the reigning champions, Italy, could point to their victory in England, over England, last time.
And, indeed, viewed from one perspective – that of opposition attackers – England’s favourite status does look like an exercise in optimism. Will any opposing managers really consider Luke Shaw to be match-fit at left back when Shaw has completed 90 minutes once for Manchester United in 2024 and has not played for them since February? Even coaches who do not normally use the term “run ‘im” might give it a go.
If Shaw is not ready to start Kieran Trippier is likely to step in from right back. Trippier has recently returned from his own injury for Newcastle United after two months out. Trippier is a fine, experienced player, but his form has been inconsistent since.
This is merely one position. Harry Maguire’s exclusion from the squad, also on injury grounds, leaves another hole in Southgate’s preferred back four and as England went into last night’s friendly with Iceland at Wembley, the obvious stand-in centre-half options were Marc Guehi (10 caps), Ezri Konsa (3 caps) Lewis Dunk (6 caps) and Joe Gomez (14 caps). They would line up alongside John Stones, now 30 with 71 caps, but Stones has hardly been used as a traditional central defender by Manchester City of late.
On paper England’s group in Germany of Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia – 33, 21 and 57 to England’s 4 in Fifa’s latest rankings – should be straightforward; but each of those countries has straight forwards of their own.
Do we think Aleksandar Mitrovic will be daunted by a Stones-Guehi partnership? Rasmus Hojlund will fancy slaloming at them, while Slovenia’s Benjamin Sesko is anticipated to be one of the Euros’ breakout players.
This defensive uncertainty makes Declan Rice all the more significant for Southgate. Were Man City not 115 steps ahead Rice would be heading to Germany as the most important player of Arsenal’s Premier League title win. His status would be enormous. It may be no bad thing that the hype around Rice is slightly reduced and he can be assessed on how he tries to exert midfield control on a team of personalities brought together temporarily, rather than the systematic approach he experiences daily under Mikel Arteta with Arsenal.
Rice could be England’s most important player at the tournament, the keystone cementing a back five that must be resilient even if ad-hoc. If it is England’s other outfield five, whatever the make-up, are the reason to believe.
Think of Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka and/or Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eberechi Eze, Anthony Gordon, youngsters Kobbie Mainoo and Adam Wharton and England could beat anyone in Europe.
Were these a five-a-side Euros confidence in England would be much easier to justify; was Irish football to possess even one of them there would be the zip of excitement.
Southgate has been bold, particularly in rejecting Jack Grealish, Marcus Rashford and Jordan Henderson for the likes of Eze, Mainoo and Wharton. He has gone for future creativity over previous reliability and it makes this team, this squad, a much more interesting entity. Having once invited Eoin Morgan into the England soccer camp, Ben Stokes has just visited. Winning by entertaining is the Stokes cricket creed and it may have rubbed off on Southgate, who said Stokes spoke to his players “brilliantly about getting the right balance of fearlessness”.
The issue of style has taken a back seat due to the substance of Southgate’s squad decisions, but it will return. Whether the apparent move towards invention makes England more effective in month-long tournament terms remains to be seen.
Southgate, manager since 2016 and vastly experienced, knows the format inside out. He will understand from Euro 2020 that the best team does not necessarily win, that other factors come into play. Italy, who won then, came together as a “tournament team” after rolling through a weak qualification group. Leonardo Spinazzola set a speedy tempo.
But he was injured in the quarter-final win against Belgium, and while Italy got over the line in penalties at Wembley in the final the depth of quality was revealed when Italy then failed to reach the 2024 World Cup. Second to Switzerland in their group, Italy lost a play-off to North Macedonia. As a long-term judgment changed from the in-play perspective, the Euros felt distant and less impressive.
England were drawn with Italy in this qualification process. Southgate’s team won home and away, another measure of them and Italy. Kane scored in both matches. He remains a central figure.
On Monday at St James’ Park’s England’s friendly against Bosnia was as dull as it gets initially, not least because of Bosnia’s play-acting. England eventually won 3-0 with Kane leaving the bench to score in the 89th minute. It was a goal from nothing, a reminder that he has the positional capability to change any game in an instant. It was his 63rd goal in 90 England appearances.
That Kane leads England to Germany, where he has scored 44 goals in 45 games in his debut season for Bayern Munich, is a neat detail. He is likely to have noted that should England not win their group there is a path to Munich for a semi-final via second or third place.
He will not want that, of course, he will want England to win every game and to do so convincingly. England have the attacking players to make Kane happy, to win while entertaining, to pass and thread their way through any opposition. So, yes, they can win Euro 2024.
The thing is opponents can see the imbalance in this version of England, this team of two halves.
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