The Stephen Kenny project began with optimism but crashed into reality

Roy Barrett’s mantra, that the outgoing FAI chairman brought from Goodbody Stockbrokers, was to plan for the worst so everything else is a bonus. That’s the job, he told The Irish Times in April. Stick to the plan, until it is time to make a change. And then be ruthlessly decisive.

“You cannot manage something on the basis that only good things are going to happen,” said Barrett. “You have to manage things on the basis that bad things will happen. That is the way we have tried to manage the FAI since I have come in. We assumed things will not work out well, financially or otherwise.

“The only permanent way to change is to put the right structures and the right people in place. It is about attitude. I hope people don’t lose that.”

There is no doubting that Stephen Kenny always has the right attitude and his coaching structures appear solid, but results conflict with the view that he is the best person to manage the Republic of Ireland going forward. His his inability to get Ireland close to qualifying for a major tournament has been discussed at numerous FAI board meetings since the home defeat to Luxembourg in March 2021.

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“There are people coming out of the woodwork wanting to kick us while we are down,” said Kenny, two years ago, after a 1-1 draw with Qatar. “I’ve experienced a lot in my life and I feel really strong. It doesn’t hurt me because I know what I’m doing. We will get back on track and give the supporters a team to be proud of.”

However, since the 1-0 loss to Armenia last year, Kenny was on the “timer” Mick McCarthy experienced during his first stint as national manager.

“Those games [in 2001] were pretty much held up as my death knell, Holland away and Portugal away, they were going to see me out the door. The timer had been turned on,” McCarthy recently told Gordon Manning. “It was all set up for those who wanted to see the back of me. But those results changed everything.”

For Kenny, the timer keeps ticking. There was never a day like September 1st, 2001 when Jason McAteer’s goal sent Ireland to the World Cup at the expense of Louis van Gaal’s star-studded Dutch squad.

Ultimately, the Stephen Kenny project flattered to deceive. His team almost beat Portugal in 2021 and last March, a draw with France in Dublin was denied by Mike Maignan’s outrageous save from Nathan Collins’s last-ditch header.

That’s how it went for three years, too many nearly moments, as the manager continually fielded competitive teams despite the lack of quality at his disposal.

A product of the League of Ireland, Kenny tried to change hearts and minds, sacrificing practicality at the altar of technical football, something Irish players have struggled to adapt to.

Promoted from Ireland under-21 manager in April 2020, many former internationals were annoyed that he was given the Euro 2021 play-off against Slovakia over McCarthy. There followed an undefendable run of 17 losses from 38 matches, winning 11 but only beating one country ranked above Ireland, a 3-0 win over Scotland 17 months ago.

In 2021, with Anthony Barry replacing Damien Duff as coach, Kenny moved away from his 4-3-3 system, mainly because Ireland lacked wingers (Mikey Johnston and Chiedozie Ogbene had yet to arrive). Sticking with three centre halves proved the manager’s undoing in Athens on June 16th. That 2-1 defeat and a lack of “ruthlessness” in comparison to Gus Poyet’s older Greek outfit made progress to the Euro 2024 finals an extremely unlikely prospect.

“The principles of how the team should play, I’ve been very clear myself from day one on that, and I haven’t deviated,” said Kenny this week. “I’ve taken a lot of criticism for that. That’s just how I see it, how I genuinely see it.

“Generally, I think we’re on the right track and played very well in a lot of games but we have to, obviously, turn those draws into victories and defeats into draws.”

Things could have been a lot different had Ireland got the occasional rub of the green. Cristiano Ronaldo’s late header might not have broken Irish hearts in 2021. Instead, Ireland could have escaped Faro with a stunning point. Imagine the Nations League loss to Armenia was atoned by Troy Parrott’s chip clearing Scottish goalkeeper Craig Gordon to secure a 2-2 draw at Hampden Park.

Neither result would have got Ireland to a major tournament but salvaging respectability from middling World Cup and Nations League campaigns might have increased the number of believers in the Kenny doctrine. And anyway, those campaigns were to allow the Dubliner build a squad capable of qualifying for Euro 2024. The public only learned about this masterplan when Qatar 2022 was out of reach. Kenny also revealed that Ireland intended to win their Nations League B group. They finished third behind Scotland and Ukraine, barely edging out the 92nd-ranked Armenia in Dublin.

The Ireland job has never been about regeneration, as Kenny repeatedly stated it had become. The brief is to scramble into major tournaments or, at the very least, come close. That’s the lingering standard set by McCarthy, Martin O’Neill and Giovanni Trapattoni.

In his defence, he was unlucky from the outset, losing to Slovakia in a penalty shoot-out to reach Euro 2021.

Imagine what could have been. Collins’s late equaliser at home to France would have snatched a draw to give Kenny that “one big result” he craved. Such as the one Shane Long achieved for O’Neill against Germany in 2015.

Instead of being sent off against Greece, what if Matt Doherty curled in that injury-time equaliser to snatch an undeserving point at the Opap Arena? That result alone would have reignited the debate about extending Kenny’s contract for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. FAI CEO Jonathan Hill and director of football Marc Canham might even shelve the idea of recruiting Lee Carsley from their former employers in the English FA.

None of this happened and not because of Parrott’s miss, Maignan’s save or Ronaldo’s leap.

It cannot be a coincidence that the fine margins constantly went against Ireland under Kenny. His job security demanded a competitive showing in the Euro 2024 qualifiers. Losing five of seven matches, including home and away to Greece, silenced the Lansdowne roar. The timer turned to alarm bells after Athens but tactical flaws were previously exposed when pressure was applied by Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Andorra and even Gibraltar.

Again, it was Kenny who provided the most damning and contradictory soundbite.

“I’m not happy with Greece at all. When I looked at it, I didn’t see myself as a coach in the team. I’m responsible for that as manager.”

The Greek defeats were a belt of cold realism. Yet the manager shoulders blame for starting Adam Idah alongside Ferguson and dropping Will Smallbone back into no man’s land as an insipid Irish midfield could not retain possession, never mind spark any notable attacks.

After three years, that was Kenny’s Ireland. Ranked 34th in the world when he took over, they currently lie 58th, two behind Burkina Faso.

When the Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman outcoached him to secure a 2-1 win at the Aviva in September, Richard Dunne took aim on Virgin television: “It took going a goal behind to make some changes. The manager must recognise that and his coaching staff. There was no reaction, there was nothing.”

Kenny and assistant manager Keith Andrews did freshen up the scouting process in England. They modernised the squad’s sports science and preparation. Player morale soared on their watch with most of the squad moving to EFL Championship clubs, in the second tier of English football to ensure match fitness. But the EFL’s 46-game season is also why Ireland lost to Armenia and Greece in successive June windows. Or so Kenny stated.

Comparisons with his predecessors make for grim reading. The game seemingly collapsed in Ireland between Brian Kerr (2003-05) and Martin O’Neill guiding the country to Euro 2016. In competitive matches, O’Neill’s Ireland won 12, drew 12 and lost eight. Kerr won seven, drew seven and lost twice. Kenny goes to Amsterdam with six competitive wins, against Azerbaijan, Luxembourg, Scotland, Armenia and Gibraltar twice. They lost the corresponding fixtures to Luxembourg, Scotland and Armenia. Also, there were 15 losses.

Other nights sailed Ireland close to historic lows. A brace by Parrott avoided disaster in the Pyrenees against Andorra – Kenny’s first victory after 12 games. Meltdown versus Armenia in Dublin was averted by Robbie Brady’s 91st-minute spot kick securing a 3-2 win. Following a depressing first half against Gibraltar in June, the fiercely loyal Aviva crowd began to turn.

Whether history looks kindly upon his time in charge depends on how the Ferguson-Gavin Bazunu generation perform in their mid-twenties. Nonetheless, there should be a soft landing for him in the League of Ireland or elsewhere mainly because, as Kerr noted, “he has evolved” since leaving Dundalk in 2018.

“Stephen is a great football man and he has a clear picture in his head about how football should be played. I admire him for that.” There’s a ‘but’ coming. Kerr always had misgivings about the appointment: “But no other manager has been given the support or resources that Stephen has been given as manager of the Irish team, or patience in terms of results.”

By the numbers

Kenny record as Ireland manager

Played: 38. Won: 11. Drew: 10. Lost: 17. Goals for 48. Against: 43.

In his Own Words

“It’s a short life and I’ve only got one chance, one opportunity here. I will ensure that I have conviction in the way I set the team up. The ambition will be that we will dominate possession in a lot of the games. I can’t promise that we will always achieve that but I want people to come to the Aviva Stadium and look forward to watching this team. And ideally I would want every schoolboy team looking at the international team and thinking: ‘that’s how we want to play’.” – April 2020

“There are people coming out of the woodwork wanting to kick us while we are down. That’s been very evident and maybe it is to be expected but it doesn’t hurt me because I don’t care. I’ve experienced a lot in my life and I feel really strong. It doesn’t hurt me because I know what I’m doing. We will get back on track and give the supporters a team to be proud of.” – March 2021

“I have been in 16 cups finals. I was in eight FAI Cup finals. I have been in two Scottish Cup finals. I won six league cups. I won more trophies than anyone in modern history. I won five league titles. Forty-six Champions League and Europa League games; I beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Bate Borisov, Göteborg home and away, Hajduk Split and others, drew with Paris Saint Germain, drew with Legia Warsaw. That’s why I got the job. Because I am the most successful Irish manager at this time. I’ve made brave decisions in the best interests of Irish football, okay? And I’ve made good decisions.” – June 2023

“An absolute jilted generation of players! Alan Browne, he’s the only player in an eight-year period who came through the [Ireland under] 21s. One player in eight years? I’m after putting 20 in two years through the squad, because that’s what was needed. It wasn’t a vanity project to bring in 20 players, we had to.” – September 2023