Smith may decide to opt out of final

WILL she? Or won't she? Michelle Smith may appear Unstoppable, but if any event is going to dent the aura of invincibility the Dubliner has built up around her like a force-field, it will be the 200 metres individual medley which takes place in the Georgia Tech Aquatic Centre tonight.

Two reasons, mainly. Firstly, Smith's all-conquering performances in the 400 metres medley and the 400 metres freestyle have been nurtured on power and, particularly, her strength on the home run. Tonight's race is all about speed. Secondly, Smith's two gold medal winning victories may have sapped a little energy from her finely-tuned body.

And, in the back of her mind she must also be aware that the 200 metres butterfly on Friday night represents a gift-edged opportunity to add another gold to her collection.

Still, Smith will, yet again, be a formidable opponent in the 200 metres medley; that is, should she choose to compete in the final. "I'll swim in the heats, see how I feel, and then make up my mind," she admitted. It's a similar situation to last year at the European Championships in Vienna. On that occasion, Smith also had reservations but won the event. The lure of a title can prove irresistible.

However, a queue is forming to knock Smith off her perch, perhaps not to replace her as the best all-round swimmer in the world, but to at least question her infallibility. The Americans, in particular, would love to spoil the Irish party, and, in Allison Wagner, who took the silver medal behind Smith in the 400 metres medley, and Kristine Quance, they have a couple of likely troublemakers.

Wagner - who has the second fastest time (3:13.71) in the world this year behind the out-of-sorts Yanyan Wu of China - was so disappointed with finishing runner-up to Smith in the 400 metres medley that she vowed: "I'll make up for it in the 200 metres." The reality is that she was outclassed by Smith in that race but, over the shorter distance, Wagner, who celebrated her 19th birthday last Sunday, could be a more than realistic threat.

The same applies to Quance, one of the sob stories of the US Olympic trials. She was disqualified from the 400 metres individual medley - "my best event," Quance claimed - for an illegal turn in those trials and is, generally, considered a better swimmer than Wagner. She gets her chance to prove it tonight.

Smith is actually in the same heat as Wagner today and, judging on that heat five performance, the two-time gold medallist will decide whether or not to compete in the final. Minouche Smit of the Netherlands is also in the heat so Smith should get a very good idea of her well-being over the distance.

The failures of these Games so far have been the Chinese. Jingyi Le won the first women's gold in the pool - the 100 metres freestyle - but, apart from that, the country's swimmers have floundered. All of which makes Yanyan Wu's world number one ranking hard to take seriously entering the 200 metres medley.

Chinese coach Ming Zhon has struggled to find a reason for their collapse, considering most of the world best times for 1996 were set at their national trials in March. "Perhaps it is because 90 per cent of our swimmers are very young .... the times were good enough for our, trials, but not for the Olympics.

Be that as it may, the Chinese threat cannot be taken too seriously. Not on this occasion, at any rate. Smith is definitely the swimmer of the Games - her status as the best all-rounder given some extra status when Tom Dolan yesterday failed to qualify for the 400 metres freestyle final - and is the one everyone entering the pool fears the most.

The Australian factor could also come into play. Elli Overton hasn't been out of a major 200 metres individual medley final since the world championships of 1991, while 16-year-old Emma Johnson - the baby of the Australian team - has come on in leaps and bounds since arriving in Atlanta and has been earmarked as a champion of the future.

So, the questions remain. Will she? Or won't she? Can Smith win a third gold? Or, if the heats don't go well, will she refocus her thoughts to Friday's butterfly? Only Smith - and husband and coach Erik de Bruin - can make the decision. And that won't be until after the heats. But, if Smith decides to reappear tonight, then another medal (if not of a golden hue) is within her scope.

But a final without Smith could give the Americans the opportunity to finish 1-2. With, perhaps, Wagner first. We'll see.

THE MAIN CONTENDERS

Michelle Smith (Ireland). Age 26. Height 5' 3". The big success story of Atlanta '96, the Dubliner has two gold medals (400m IM and 400m freestyle) tucked away. Another medal is within her grasp tonight. If she goes. But there is a temptation to compete in the heats (to withdraw wouldn't allow her compete in this year's Games again) and, then, possibly, concentrate on Friday's 200 metres butterfly where she is favourite for gold.

Allison Wagner (USA). 19. 5' 7". Silver medallist behind Smith in the 400 metres individual medley and also a double silver medallist at the 1994 world championships. Is the second fastest 200 metres individual medley woman in American history. Possibly, the one to beat.

Kristine Quance (USA). 21. 5' 8". A student at Southern California, she won the NCAA swimmer of the year (1996) and has eight US national titles to her credit. Bronze medallist at 400 metres individual medley in the 1994 world championships.

Ellis Overton (Australia). 22. 6' 0". One of the mainstays of the Australian team, Overton has competed in every major 200 metres individual medley final since the world championships in 1991. Was fifth in the event in Barcelona four years ago. Bronze medallist at 200 metres individual medley in 1994 world tests.