Shelbourne have the credentials

It's only a couple of years since the greatest single truism in domestic football was the pre-season utterance by the pundits that ours "is a very tough league to defend". Then St Patrick's exploded the myth by winning it more convincingly the second time around than they had the first.

Now it appears that everything has been turned on its head. Three days before the new campaign gets under way at Terryland Park it's nigh on impossible to find anyone even vaguely associated with the game who doesn't reckon that Shelbourne start this week as strong favourites to retain their title.

On the basis of their dealings in the market over the summer as well as their competitive European outings it's hard to argue. They've bought well and performed strongly all of which leaves the pack with quite a bit of catching up to do.

A few managers, notably Pat Dolan and Roddy Collins, have been trying to narrow the gap while Derek Mountfield will presumably still add a player or two to what is already a strong squad. But Dolan must wish that Gilzean had never left Richmond Park just as Collins must rue having missed out on Richie Foran. And just about any manager in the league would be happy to see Jim Crawford arriving for training each morning. Few would consider, as Dermot Keely might well do, leaving all three on the bench for the first match in his side's attempted title defence.

The real measure of Shelbourne's progress, though, has probably been their recent European games. By beating Sloga Jugomagnat they restored some pride to the league while their showing against Rosenborg raised hopes that they might genuinely be close to being able to compete with clubs from the sort of nations that have come to look on Irish clubs as a very soft touch.

Traditionally our teams have travelled about as well as stout in a basket but this summer UCD and Shelbourne remained unbeaten away and the hope would be that Bohemians and Cork City can maintain the improvement on Thursday in Aberdeen and Lausanne.

Whether either can actually overhaul Keely's side when they return is doubtful. For the third summer in succession there have been a large number of changes in personnel at Dalymount and Collins, even with the largest full-time set up in the league, will do well to get enough out of the new men to repeat last season's surprisingly strong showing.

City, on the other hand, are less unsettled. Most of the key men have stayed on with only Liam O'Brien, Dave Hill and Gareth Cronin of last season's regulars departing the scene.

Instead, the problem at Turner's Cross is the lack of real cover in central defence or up front where the team was last year almost entirely dependent upon Pat Morley.

The apparent collapse of Derek Coughlan's move to Luton may go a good way towards solving the first problem as might, to some extent, the ability of 37 year-old Mountfield to register himself as a player. For now, however, the error made in connection with Couglan's international registration, which was prematurely given to Luton, means that he cannot now play for City for the next eight weeks.

Outside of those two, the only other likely challengers to Shelbourne would appear to be St Patrick's Athletic although Damien Richardson seems far more optimistic regarding Shamrock Rovers hopes than he was at this time last year.

In the battle for Europe UCD and Derry will certainly expect to be involved, Finn Harps clearly see themselves bouncing back from last season's nightmare and Don O'Riordan feels that Galway can do better than the eighth place achieved in April.

If they're all right then we would, rather neatly, be left with the three promoted sides going straight back down as the division is reduced in size to 10 teams for the following season.

It's not out of the question that that's the way it will turn out. The record of promoted clubs in their first season up remains fairly abysmal but don't bank on it. At least two of the three should make a fight of it and the sleepless nights should continue for managers at both ends of the table right up until the end of spring.

Just the way the rest of us like it.