Scotland threatening to lay waste to a season and a head coach's job

IN FOCUS: SCOTLANDIt's too soon to talk about a Scottish revival, but they are threatening to lay waste to Ireland's season, and with it Declan Kidney's time as head coach. High stakes tomorrow. And they have history in this regard.

Twelve years have passed since Scotland last managed back-to-back scalps in the Six Nations. The circumstances surrounding that meagre achievement are unusual, to say the least, but Irish rugby supporters of a certain age will remember the car crash viewing. Warren Gatland probably jolts awake at night whenever the trauma of September 2001 creeps into his subconscious.

Just like a fortnight ago, Italy were torn asunder by a half-decent Scotland side reacting to an English pounding. Due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, six months passed before Ireland made it up to Edinburgh and despite victories over Italy and France, their young Kiwi coach gave in to the urge of tinkering with a winning formula.

Out went Peter Stringer for Guy Easterby. Mick Galway made way for Jeremy Davidson and Shane Horgan switched to inside centre instead of Rob Henderson as Geordan Murphy started on the wing, only to be forced off with a puled hamstring.

Also, two young Munster flankers, Alan Quinlan and David Wallace, were dropped for Simon Easterby and Kieron Dawson. No Ireland team has undergone such radical alternations since. Until now.

Valuable lesson

Gatland learned a valuable lesson as kilted Kiwi John Leslie excelled in the mugging. It finished 32-10 and the Grand Slam/Championship dream went up in smoke.

Normal service resumed the following March as Ireland hammered them 43-22 at Lansdowne Road. The second most famous Brian O’Driscoll hat-trick. One of those tries sprang to mind when Stuart Hogg rubberstamped Luciano Orquera’s meltdown a fortnight ago by intercepting the Italian outhalf on his own five-metre line. After zig-zagging through a mass of bodies, the 20-year-old fullback hit the afterburners to go the length of Murrayfield.

The natives hadn’t seen one of their own score that kind of try for a generation. In fact, they haven’t seen many tries at all. Until now. Six tries in two games signifies a colossal leap forward for Scotland.

Nor is Hogg’s brilliance a one-off. He bagged a similar try against England ‘A’ last year and ran in a hat-trick for Glasgow against Munster at Musgrave Park. But the locals have been hurt too many times to believe this is the dawn of a bright new era. Not yet anyway.

“We are not confident,” said John Jeffrey, the legendary blonde-maned flanker from the 1990 Grand Slam-winning team. “You cannot be confident having just won one game in the last two years in the Six Nations. That would just be cocky.

“We will get confidence if we do our basics right, because only then will we give ourselves a chance of winning. Confident of victory? No. That would be very disingenuous to the Irish. We are optimistic.”

It smells like an ambush.

What are the reasons for being optimistic? For starters, take Ireland’s chronic injury list. Every single unit from the back three to frontrow has lost a guaranteed starter.

“This is a golden opportunity that awaits them on Sunday,” wrote Tom English in the Scotsman. “Ireland are missing so many players that Scotland should feel mortified if they don’t put them away.”

Either side of Hogg, Scotland suddenly possess players capable of putting any team away. The SRU have cleverly recruited a pair of natural-born wingers in the naturalised Dutchman Tim Visser and New Zealand-born Seán Maitland. Both would be established internationals if not for a simple twist of faith: their birth places.

Two seasons

Maitland has been electric for the Canterbury Crusaders these past two seasons, while Visser reigns supreme in the PRO12 try-scoring charts, instantly transferring his prolific ways to the Test arena with fives touchdowns in seven starts. Maitland bagged a try on his debut at Twickenham.

More reasons to be optimistic? They have a pack of mongrels that would make Jim Telfer swoon. In English forward guru Dean Ryan – on loan from Sky Sports for the tournament – they’ve unearthed an honest voice, both publicly and privately, with hard-nosed values. Telfer without the insane aggression.

“No doubt about it, we’ve moulded into a big pack that has won more possession and territory for a long time, just not been able to convert into tries” Jeffrey continued.

“The ironic thing is this season we’ve scored six tries but had the worse possession in both games by quite a long way. That’s the bizarre anomaly of it.”

Unlike Ireland, injuries have not been a major problem as even Alasdair Strokosch’s loss opened the gate for Rob Harley to bring his secondrow frame to the blindside. Harley is nuisance at the breakdown and while it’s too soon to compare, he operates in the same annoying manner as Jeffrey. Dogged and unafraid.

Jim Hamilton, at 30 years old, has also realised his 6ft 8in, 19st body is best used to enforce and cause trouble. Number eight Johnnie Beattie has entered the realms of world-class status since moving to Montpellier, while Kelly Brown and Richie Gray are living up to their lofty reputations.

Granted, the loss of Euan Murray, on religious grounds, evens up the frontrow scrap with Cian Healy suspended.

“You are never as great as you think you are but you are never as poor as other people think you are,” said Jeffrey. “And let’s not kid ourselves, we lost all three games in November and we were beaten by England.

“We beat Italy and all of a sudden we are a great team? I disagree with that but at the same time I disagree that we are a poor team. There have been some real highs. And lows. Last year we got the wooden spoon, went on tour and were the most successful Northern Hemisphere team winning all three Tests down south.

Four tries

“Since the autumn Tests we’ve had a change in coach and started playing a different type of rugby against England, scored two tries, but still well beaten. But we were competitive. Against Italy they played very well and scored four tries.

“This team is progressing at the moment but let’s not get too carried away with ourselves.”

Johnson and Ryan have brought a clarity to their game plan. The glaringly obvious (potential) weakness in both teams tomorrow goes by the same name. Jackson. If Scotland’s highly-skilled yet erratic outhalf, Ruaridh Jackson, buckles under the strain, scrumhalf Greig Laidlaw will have to carry the playmaking burden.

That’s what makes this encounter so fascinating. The defeated will be cast into ruin, the victors gaining a valuable momentum that, in Scotland’s case, will drive them upwards after years languishing in the doldrums. Jeffrey expects some brutal exchanges.

“This match is a really defining match in both Ireland and Scotland’s Six Nations championship. I expect a lot of blood and snotters and hair flying around on Sunday.”

Scotland have the capability to win just maybe not the mental strength, when compared to Ireland, to pull it off.

On the record: Kidney v Scotland

March, 2012

Ireland 32-14 Scotland

Aviva Stadium

In the absence of Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell, Rory Best captained Ireland to a comfortable victory, with the Ulster hooker crossing for the first of four tries.

IRELAND: R Kearney; T Bowe, K Earls, G D'Arcy, A Trimble; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, R Best (capt), M Ross; D O'Callaghan, D Ryan; S Ferris, P O'Mahony, J Heaslip.

February, 2011

Ireland 21-18 Scotland

Murrayfield

History may register this as the dying kick of the Ronan O'Gara era. Seán O'Brien excelled, but it was the Munster outhalf's individual try that put Ireland into a seemingly unassailable 21-9 lead. They managed to survive a late Scottish onslaught.

IRELAND: L Fitzgerald; T Bowe, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, K Earls; R O'Gara, E Reddan; C Healy, R Best, M Ross; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell; S O'Brien, D Wallace, J Heaslip.

March, 2010

Ireland 20-23 Scotland

Croke Park

A Triple Crown lost, a numb feeling permeated GAA headquarters after Dan Parks' last-gasp penalty sailed over to ensure a rare recent triumph for Scotland

IRELAND: G Murphy; T Bowe, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, K Earls; J Sexton, T O'Leary; C Healy, R Best, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell; S Ferris, D Wallace, J Heaslip.

March, 2009

Ireland 22-15 Scotland

Murrayfield

Remains a high water-mark of Kidney's time as Irish coach. The decision to drop Tomás O'Leary and Jamie Heaslip proved, eh, a masterstroke as Heaslip replaced the injured Denis Leamy to gallop over for the game's only try after Peter Stringer's clever break. The Grand Slam followed sevens days later.

IRELAND: R Kearney; T Bowe, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, L Fitzgerald; R O'Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, R Best, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell; S Ferris, D Wallace, D Leamy.