In the aftermath of Connacht's famous win in Thomond Park last Saturday Pat Lam turned his attention to tonight's game. His wry smile when briefly reflecting on the corresponding visit to the Arms Park last March said it all.
Connacht were riding high in the top six and were eyeing direct qualification for the European Champions Cup, but some poor officiating at the end contributed to a painful 18-17 loss. It also prompted a post-match critique from the Connacht coach toward the touch judge on the night, Leighton Hodges, which saw Lam reprimanded and fined €8,000 (€5,000 suspended) and led to a four-match losing run which all but scuppered their top six hopes.
So this is one Connacht would dearly love to win. Coming on the back of their historic win in Limerick, and with it a Connacht record of six successive league wins, it would be a further statement of their intent.
Alas, there was more bad news yesterday in their latest medical bulletin, with confirmation that their newly signed outhalf AJ MacGinty suffered a meniscal tear to his knee during the game against Munster. He underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday and is facing three to four weeks of recovery, thus joining the other casualties from last week, including Robbie Henshaw, to an injury list which now numbers 16.
Dug deep
Partly as a result, Lam has again dug deep into Connacht’s reserves in making eight changes in personnel. Darragh Leader comes on to the right wing for his 50th Connacht appearance (with Tiernan O’Halloran moving to fullback in the absence of Henshaw) while Ian Porter is given his first Pro12 start of the season in a new half-back pairing wristlock Carty.
Up front, Ronan Loughney, Dave Heffernan and Rodney Ah You form a new frontrow, while Quinn Roux returns from injury to partner Aly Muldowney, outstanding last week, in the secondrow, while Eoin McKeon returns at number eight.
After his 70 minute tour de force last week, their captain John Muldoon becomes the first man to play 200 games in the Pro12 when he leads the side out after turning 33last Monday.
The 22-year-old flanker James Connolly retains his place after last week’s eye-catching debut, notably in the way he identified and attacked space. He is joined by four fellow Academy members on the bench in the 19-year-old Ireland under-20s prop from Sligo, Conan O’Donnell, the 21-year-old lock Seán O’Brien, and backs Rory Parata and Peter Robb, who thus could make his League debut.
“Cardiff has been a difficult fixture for us the past few seasons and they are very tough to beat at home,” said Muldoon in reference to Connacht’s record of only having won twice in the Welsh capital. “They have some quality, experienced players in their squad and they will view this game as a chance to get back to winning ways. We know we will have to be at our best and fully focused as a team to get the four points on offer.”
”I’d also like to give a special mention to our skipper and warrior Mul [John Muldoon] who consistently epitomises what we’re about,” added Lam in reference to Muldoon’s landmark outing.
In stark contrast, Cardiff have slipped to a run of seven successive Pro12 defeats, their worst run in the history of the tournament. The fit-again Alex Cuthbert makes his comeback as head coach Danny Wilson makes five changes to the side that narrowly lost out to Ospreys in last week’s grim derby.
Leading scorer Rhys Patchell is recalled, although at fullback, while a hooker Ethan Lewis, lock Jarrod Hoeata and blindside Macauley Cook return up front, with Josh Turnbull moving to openside flanker.
Caveats
Yet there are more than a few caveats in forecasting another Connacht win. No less than losing runs, winning runs do not go on forever. No team is more desperate for a win than Cardiff, and Connacht’s status as current league leaders makes them more of a scalp.
And if ever there was going to be a comedown from a big win so far this season, it would be on the back of last week’s breakthrough storming of Thomond Park. Besides which, their squad is being stretched even more this week.
However, if they are still in the hunt when Marmion and George Naoupu are introduced then they have every chance, although the bench does look fairly callow.
Even so, on the premise of form, and if Connacht reproduce this season’s confidence and accuracy in their passing skills, lines of running and recycling, then they’ve ever chance of making it nine wins in a row in both competitions.
CARDIFF BLUES: R Patchell; A Cuthbert, R Lee-Lo, G Evans, T James; J Evans, L Williams; G Jenkins (capt), E Lewis, T Filise, J Hoeata, L Reed, M Cook, J Turnbull, M Vosawai.
Replacements: K Dacey, S Hobbs, C Mitchell, J Down, C Dolan, T Knoyle, G Smith, D Fish.
CONNACHT: T O'Halloran; D Leader, B Aki, C Ronaldson, M Healy; J Carty, I Porter; R Loughney, D Heffernan, R Ah You, Q Roux, A Muldowney, J Muldoon (capt), J Connolly, E McKeon.
Replacements: J Harris-Wright, C O'Donnell, F Bealham, G Naoupu, S O'Brien, K Marmion, P Robb, R Parata.
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU).
Five-game formguide: Cardiff – L L L L L. Connacht – W W W W W. Last five meetings: (2013-14) Cardiff 21 Connacht 10; Connacht 15 Cardiff 22. (2014-15) Connacht 24 Cardiff 24; Cardiff 18 Connacht 17. Leading points scorers: Cardiff – Rhys Patchell 88. Connacht – Jack Carty 52, Craig Ronaldson 45. Leading try scorers: Cardiff – Josh Turnbull 4, Josh Navidi, Rhys Patchell 3 each. Connacht – Nepia Fox-Matamua, Matt Healy, Tiernan O'Halloran, Danie Poolman 3 each. Betting (Paddy Powers): 10/11 Cardiff, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Connacht. Forecast: Connacht to win.
