Matt Williams: Overlooked Joey Carbery deserves chance to realise his potential

Outhalf grew into his role in Paris where Ireland proved they are on the right path

In social psychology, group narcissism is defined as “the tendency to exaggerate the importance of a group to which one belongs.” Last Saturday before kickoff at the Stade de France, vast swathes of the Irish rugby community had drifted into collective narcissism.

After nine home wins in a row, many had wrongly convinced themselves Paris would be a doddle. Paris is many wonderful things, but it is never a “doddle”.

One of the most self-defeating traits of collective narcissism is that despite the obvious facts of the power and skills of another group, they are always under-rated. In Ireland last week that was definitely the case.

On almost every metric the game at the Stade de France was played at a far higher level of competency than any other Six Nations match in 2022

The reality was the odds were stacked against Ireland. A packed, flag-waving Stade de France, roaring on a highly-talented French squad, against an Irish team who were playing away to a hostile audience for the first time in two years, minus their talisman Johnny Sexton.

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All of this evidence suggested that Ireland were going to “do it tough” in Paris. After all, this was only the fifth game into this Irish team’s rugby revolution.

In November, Ireland had finally broken the shackles of years of highly-prescriptive, coach-driven, low-quality attack. Ireland’s autumn attacking revolution freed decision making and liberated creativity. Since last November, Ireland have played some excellent rugby, and last Saturday was no exception.

Far from disaster

On almost every metric the game at the Stade de France was played at a far higher level of competency than any other Six Nations match in 2022. It was the best match of the championship by a considerable margin.

From an Irish perspective, Paris has to be viewed as a missed opportunity but it was far from a disaster. Ireland came within a whisker of overturning a French team that are three years post their own revolution.

The great change in the French national side started post-RWC 2019 when Fabien Galthié was appointed. He then began the Herculean task of dragging the coaching methods of the French national team, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century. Compared to Ireland, who are only four months into their seismic shift, France are far more mature, having successfully embarked on their third Galthié-led Six Nations Championship.

The French were by no means perfect but their maturity was evident in their effective tactics, which received little recognition in Ireland. Irish navel-gazing was wrongly consumed with bagging James Ryan for deciding to kick a penalty goal in the 68th minute. A decision I believe was correct.

Not many rugby people outside of France know the name Karim Ghezal. He is the lineout coach of France and last week he did a masterful job.

For the first time under Paul O’Connell’s tutelage, the Irish lineout and breakdown coughed and spluttered. A well-known fact across the rugby world is that Ireland use their powerful lineout to launch their attack. Many teams, including England and New Zealand, have tried to disrupt the Irish lineout but only France have succeeded.

A major factor in Ryan’s decision to not kick for touch, a decision I agree with, was Ireland had just lost a lineout 5 metres from the French try line; stolen at the tail by excellent French defensive agility.

When the French defensive lineout could not steal possession outright, they gave Ireland what Australians term "fractured fruit". That is unclean, broken possession. France also effectively disrupted the Irish maul. All of this added together and Joey Carbery saw very little ball from Irish throw-ins.

What ball Ireland did take forward was met with two French tacklers from the Shaun Edwards-coached defence. France double-teamed every Irish ball carrier and added a third “jackaler”, fighting to slow the pace of every ruck, trying to get his hands on the ball. France turned every Irish attacking ruck “into a dockside brawl”.

The match statistics back up these observations. While attacking, Ireland conceded six penalties compared with a miserly two by the French. Ireland’s lightning-fast ruck speed of the past four matches evaporated. Ruck speed was 30 per cent slower than against Wales.

Tactics

Surprisingly, when France got the ball, their tactics were the opposite of what Ireland and the world expected. For 61 per cent of the French attack, the forwards either ran hard off a Dupont pass or performed “pick-and-go” carries.

In selecting six forwards on the bench, Galthié’s plan was to win via route one, straight up the guts. While the world expected to see the French “rock star” backline cut loose, Galthié went to lesson 1-0-1 of the coaching manual and gave his opposition what they did not want or expect.

While Ireland tackled bravely, Les Bleus’s power won the gainline 56 per cent of the time on their possession. While Ireland dominated 54 per cent of overall possession, the effective French defence stopped Ireland behind their gain line for 52 per cent of that possession.

Ireland will be infuriated by their early defensive lapse that allowed Dupont an uncontested quick throw-in

Despite all of this French statistical dominance, we should channel the spirit of Ian Dury and the Blockheads, because there are “reasons to be cheerful”.

The French gain line dominance resulted in them entering the Irish 22 metre area 13 times, yet Ireland conceded only two tries. At the other end of the field, Ireland reached the French red zone only nine times, scoring three tries.

Firstly, this tells us that the Irish attack, for the short periods it fired on all cylinders, was effective. Secondly, Ireland tackled their hearts out to achieve a far better defensive outcome than New Zealand did in Paris last November.

Ireland will be infuriated by their early defensive lapse that allowed Dupont an uncontested quick throw-in. This ignited a beautiful multiphase French attacking movement that ended with a supporting Dupont catching a possibly forward infield “hail mary” from Romain Ntamack. Dupont touched down the defining score of the match.

Importantly, unlike the Irish defeats to England in 2019 and 2020, last week the men in green were far more competitive. Ireland hung in there, enduring the intensity of the stadium and the ferocity of the French physicality which undoubtedly rattled them at stages. Yet they remained comfortable at being uncomfortable. In the opening minutes of the second half, Ireland found a way to compose themselves and they did what they said they would do all week and imposed their game plan on France.

Now here is the really good news. That attacking plan worked a treat.

High-tempo, gain line theory attack tore into the French defence and produced two tries inside of 10 minutes proving that the path this Irish team are following is the right one.

This journey is personified by the performance of Carbery. Let me be clear, no one should utter one word of criticism about Joey.

Confidence will return

Any criticism should be directed at past Irish managements who have failed both Carbery and Irish rugby. Six years after making his debut in 2016 in Chicago against New Zealand, Ireland’s unquestionable number two outhalf was a late call-up to start in Paris. Outrageously, prior to Paris, in the past six years, Carbery has only been selected to start against two top 10 world ranked teams. Against the Pumas last November and way back in 2017 on the tour to Australia. Despite Carbery’s significant injury profile, this is simply staggeringly poor management of Ireland’s scarce outhalf resources and another sad example of how poorly Ireland plan for World Cups.

As last week’s match progressed and the Irish forwards grabbed some equality upfront, unsurprisingly, Carbery grew into his role. He began running on to the ball, straightening his line and attacking the defence. Hopefully, with another selection against Italy and a minimum of one Test in New Zealand, his confidence will return and his creativity will be revealed.

While still at the beginning of their journey this Irish team are capable of defeating Italy, England and Scotland in their remaining Six Nations matches. They can also win the first Test in New Zealand.

The Irish performance in Paris was not perfect but the foundation of their new running philosophy and game plan remains rock solid. They must learn from the valuable lessons that their experiences at Stade de France have tossed their way. Lessons that can deliver success in Dublin, London and New Zealand.