Who outside the Six Nations would win the Six Nations? Who would be capable of adapting to the extreme constraints of this wonderfully historic competition? Very few, I fancy.
New Zealand, I’m not sure; Australia, certainly not; and South Africa, maybe in time.
There is a reason for this, and it is based on the uniqueness of the competition, where the margins are fine and details are brutally important. It is not an environment for experimentation.
In the old days our coaches would enter the dressing room of elite rugby teams and would take out the team sheets and go through man for man both sides in an effort to convince the selected player that he was better than his opposite man. In some cases he was, but in many, many more he was not.
For Irish players, be it province or country, this was done with some gnashing of players’ teeth because even “Nat-imac” was derided in one dressing room. No one felt French magician Émile Ntamack had peers in the Irish team sheet as he was pure class, a wonder to watch and a nightmare to play against.
His son, Roman Ntamack, plays at fly-half for the French under-20s this Friday in Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux; ditto Trevor Brennan’s son Daniel.
With Ntamack in mind, possibly Joe Schmidt’s greatest gift to Irish rugby is his ability to pronounce correctly the French selection, but an even greater one exists. He has rendered, almost neutralised, the influence of wonder players that oppose his team in two ways.
Firstly, he has developed a ruthless environment for his opposition which Matthieu Jalibert will experience first-hand; yes it blips over time but both New Zealand and English were stopped on their record run.
And, secondly, he has an even more ruthless environment imposed on his own team; ideally suited to Six Nations rugby.
Any individual
The combination of both has seen certain players like Simon Zebo slip on. But it has also reduced the impact of the modern Ntamack where for the first time in our elite history we can say that man for man this Six Nations we are the match of any individual; even taking into account some freaks like Maro Itoje.
Not just as athletes but, more impressively; rugby knowledge – or better put Schmidt rugby knowledge.
Discipline is oft confused for non-violent behaviour, but discipline for me is the ability to execute the game plan under the most horrific of pressure. On Saturday there will be horrific pressure, we know this.
So to Saturday’s game plan.
What do we know? Ireland need the ball to score. Obvious, I know, but they need it for huge swathes of time before they score a Six Nations try; 20 minutes on average, which is over twice as long as either England and Scotland.
It’s attritional, requiring immense fitness, more rucks and way more one out passes than any other Six Nations team, and it needs players like CJ Stander to batter at will in gaining inches. That’s why he is picked.
This is especially relevant in Paris on Saturday as the French take over 16 minutes on average to concede a try; the longest in last season’s championship. I bet you didn’t realise that France are the hardest/longest to break down!
Exhausting rucks
I expect Ireland will continue in this vein (hence the team selection from Schmidt) where they will have about 50 per cent more exhausting rucks than France, but with a slight twist. To be fair even in the Six Nations Ireland have pushed the width of their game a tad where Johnny Sexton is now least likely to kick the ball than any other Six Nations outhalf. That’s statistically true, as is Ireland’s reaction to a lineout steal, which brings me to team selection.
There will be little change over the five championship games, but on Saturday James Ryan in for Devin Toner is a big call, especially off defensive scrums where last season Ireland conceded no tries. So along with the exhausting tighthead scrummaging role, Ryan must be mindful of the excessive six lineout tries conceded by Ireland last Six Nations.
Who will manage Ireland’s lineout offence and defence will be interesting, but France will be confident in our corner.
The air raid doesn’t end there as France kickoffs are the most contestable of the competition, where 75 per cent of them target a successful return, well ahead of the rest. Ryan will be pressurised in this phase too.
But should he get some lineout steals Ireland are best placed to capitalise in converting width to the steal. Ireland are developing this aspect, and transitioning from deep may not be Six Nations gold but it’ll advance out RWC preparation no end!
Own half
Add to that, France are most likely of all the teams to score from their own half, making our kicking game hugely significant. Loose kicks are more likely punished by France than, say, England.
Yet that’s just part of the jigsaw as Andy Farrell or, more appropriately, Bundee Aki’s defensive system will face far greater challenges in opposition style than in his debut last November. In a way it’s a totally different game in the Six Nations.
I expect warfare in Paris; Ireland relentlessly building phases towards the French try line, and when the French leak at the lineout Ireland will use the full width of the pitch. In the meantime Jalibert is duty bound to entertain us, but, alas, will learn lessons deep in the Irish trenches.
PS. My old mentor and Old Crescent legend Cyril Downes has passed on to his reward. But for him my 35-year journey in this amazing game would never have been; RIP.
liamtoland@yahoo.com
