The odds on Ireland delivering a knockout blow to Italy and thus setting up a toe-to-toe pool decider against France in Cardiff a week hence have, if anything, shortened over the last two weeks. Ireland have been serene, whereas Italy have stumbled. But if the Italians are on the ropes, they've thus every incentive to swing from the hip.
The Azzurri are drinking at the last chance saloon, and Sergio Parisse is also back and, even at 70 per cent, his presence is a rallying point for his team.
For Ireland there is the considerable prize of securing a place in the quarter-finals, and thus giving themselves a shot at avoiding the All Blacks in the quarter-finals and, potentially, South Africa in the same half of the draw as well. Admittedly, those old World Cup foes Argentina are looming ever more larger and dangerously with each passing week, perhaps even more so than France. But that's for next week.
As to who else might be in the same half of the draw as the Pool D winners, and thus prospective semi-final opponents, that hinges upon England staying alive by beating Australia this evening or suffering an unprecedented pool exit, for both England and a host nation. Somehow that is almost unthinkable – one ventures for the tournament organisers too.
But a win would give them every chance of winning the pool. Either way, the Pool A pecking order won’t be decided until Wales and Australia lock horns this day next week.
In comparison to Twickenham, once again Ireland’s match lacks that same sense of seismic occasion, and yet there is so much on the line at the Olympic Stadium.
Ireland certainly arrive in way better shape; nearer to full fitness, with a relatively more settled team which is playing with way more consistency and with more arrows in their quiver.
True, Jared Payne's absence has meant Joe Schmidt has had to pick a seventh different midfield combination in seven games, with Keith Earls partnering Robbie Henshaw in his belated World Cup debut. Payne should return to training next Tuesday and will almost certainly patrol that defensively crucial outside centre role against France.
Similarly, Rob Kearney should return, after not being risked here, but at least Simon Zebo’s increasing effectiveness with the role has seen him emerge as an auxiliary playmaker.
Climbed above
Jack McGrath starts, with Cian Healy clamouring for an impact off the bench as well as that starting number one jersey, while Devin Toner has climbed above Donnacha Ryan in the replacements’ pecking order.
But the most intriguing selections are on the wing, and specifically that of Tommy Bowe. Were he to reproduce the trademark athleticism and aerial ability of last week, and the same defensive security and finishing, the case for starting him again a week hence will be compelling. And then there's Dave Kearney, in the form of his life, with Luke Fitzgerald, Earls and Zebo all potentially waiting in the wings as well, so to speak. Go figure. But that's why Joe gets paid the big bucks.
Schmidt also anticipates Italy applying “that very aggressive, proactive line speed that makes it difficult to play against them” and to attack the Irish set-pieces more than previous opponents
Those two warhorses Martin Castrogiovanni and hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini have been shorn from the Italian front-row, but in truth the Wasps tighthead Lorenzo Cittadini looks a superior force nowadays than 'Castro', and while Ghiraldini is a loss, as Schmidt ventured yesterday: "I challenge anyone to have a look at [Andrea] Manici and the dynamism that he brings in general play, to say that they're going to lose something there. And I think Ghiraldini's leadership will be replaced by Parisse."
Diluted
In truth, Italy’s scrum has been diluted ever since the law changes two years ago, and as Canada showed, if a team doesn’t contest their lineout maul, Italy don’t have much left.
As Schmidt noted, they have the individualism of Michele Campagnaro and the speed of Leonardo Sarto, but they’ve an outhalf in Tommaso Allan who seems to regard the space around him as a physical exclusion zone. Johnny Sexton is in a different league, as are the vast majority of Irish players in a head to head.
“If I’m talking to you guys on Sunday evening post-game and we’ve had a two-point win I’d be delighted to have qualified,” said Schmidt, yet it will be a surprise and disappointment if it comes to that.
Ireland need a high tempo, and don’t want to become embroiled in an arm wrestle, even if there’ll be no avoiding it sometimes. Italy’s ability to defend through phases heightens the importance of the carriers, the accuracy of the clearing out and the strike moves.
We also know that this Irish team will, as is invariably the case, be very well prepared.
A convincing, two- or three-score win would further underline Ireland’s form and would do nicely.
