Finn Russell does not look after his pack the way Johnny Sexton can.
If the Irish forwards are unable to get a foothold, for whatever reason, we know that Sexton or Conor Murray will alter the flow of the game.
We know they will put them in favourable positions with tactical incisions that have become instinctive.
Sexton is the mathematician at a blackjack table. Probability promises scoring opportunities if he sticks to the process.
Russell is the other type of high roller. The Scottish fly-half is willing to bet it all from anywhere on the pitch (but mainly off turnover ball), his instinct is to splinter the opposing defence with a spectacular pass.
Sexton looks after his pack with slow methodical play and a calculated eye for raising the tempo when the moment demands it.
And then he’s ruthless.
Russell is a different, younger animal. His finger is always on the trigger. This makes him wildly entertaining and Saturday’s match should be just that before our attention switches to Paris.
Ireland just need to keep building towards their long-stated goal.
In contrast, Scotland have already achieved the base goals from this season's Six Nations. We've seen the magic moment: Russell's long, looping pass to Huw Jones against England erased the Welsh trashing from their supporter's minds. The Edinburgh crowd is sated after beating France and England.
Dublin is a journey into the unknown for a team that clearly craves higher achievement.
But their victory over England shows multiple avenues Ireland must avoid. If the English defence was in proper order the Russell sling shot is an intercept try or Jones gets put on his backside by Jonny May/Jonathan Joseph (ideally both) behind the gainline on the Scottish 22.
Forcing forwards to track backwards after earning a turnover saps the collective energy.
The entire flow of a game can turn on these moments.
Russell bets his stack and it pays handsomely with Sean Maitland’s try.
This was a stirring length of the field attack off a John Barclay steal off George Ford that nobody at Murrayfield will ever forget. But I can see Jacob Stockdale picking off Russell’s pass over the head of Joseph – who was lost in no man’s land – for Jones’ 70-metre dash.
This moment lit up round two of the Six Nations but, from the perspective of England defence coach Paul Gustard, it never should have happened. Russell was trying to pick out Jones or maybe just float the ball into space over the stranded Joseph?
Garry Ringrose was caught in a similar manner by Russell’s bouncing pass to Stuart Hogg last season. I don’t see Garry making the same error twice. His pace and foot work in the wide channel can curtail the Hogg/Jones threats.
Both Huw Jones tries against England came out of nothing – a hack by Russell through that bounced up and a well finished 50-metre run that did include three missed tackles.
Really the game was won over English ball. It was constant. In the 79th minute Nathan Hughes carried five metres from the Scottish try line in search of a bonus point. Maro Itoje and Joe Marler needed to clean this ruck but they were too late. Stuart McInally got there first and won the penalty.
This should not happen with Ireland pressing their try line. Ensuring the ball carrier never gets isolated is one of Joe Schmidt’s absolute non-negotiables.
Wales coughed up five penalties in two matches until Ireland dragged nine out of them. That’s down to competent ball retention. English sub openside Sam Underhill made an immediate impact – Scotland struggled to handle him - until he proved a disastrous addition by getting sin-binned for a no arms tackle.
Obvious note to Dan Leavy: win the shoulder, win the height battle and avoid a yellow card. Leavy is playing incredible rugby. He’s made for this stage and his presence gives me huge confidence.
Also, Ireland’s superior front five will force Scottish numbers into the breakdown and that will create space somewhere else after eight-plus rucks.
I’d have Sexton and Murray making those decisions over Russell and Greig Laidlaw. They have the patience and experience to know when to pull the trigger.
Russell’s game management is improving but I expect it to be tested to a similar level as at Twickenham last March (when he seemed to play himself out of the Lions squad).
Sexton and Murray will break up the tempo of a game every so often. They will play for territorial advantage.
Russell has yet to add this type of assurance to his game. It’s something the Scottish forwards will crave this weekend.
High tempo
Gregor Townsend can hardly be criticised. The new national coach is expertly utilising his resources. He knows that playing a high tempo, high risk game is the best route to victory even if it sacrifices game management which becomes an essential component to win major Test matches away from home.
Wales exposed this. Ireland should too.
Russell is rightly hailed a Scottish hero after the England win but it’s interesting to see Townsend didn’t trust him to see off France with Greig Laidlaw finishing at outhalf. John Barclay was also pulled on 65 minutes after an ineffective showing at the breakdown.
The positive slant is Scotland proved they can win a different way.
Maybe so.
I’m not convinced.
Ireland have won three matches with similarly impressive performances.
Scotland’s 13 turnovers of English ball captured the Calcutta Cup. How they go about their business, namely Barclay’s damage over Irish ball, will impact Saturday’s game in Dublin but I don’t see their captain having anywhere near the joy he had against Chris Robshaw.
Four clean turnovers by Barclay is a remarkable return in any Test match but for all Scotland’s excellence – and it is a traditional strength - England were so inept at securing possession in prime attacking positions.
England committed only one man into far too many rucks and other times their body positions and late arrival was no where near the standard of a team chasing a third Six Nations title.
Certain English players were targeted on the floor – the wingers, May and Anthony Watson, along with Courtney Lawes, were all relieved of possession three times.
Russell also conceded three turnovers.
It’s easy to say Ireland will target Russell but it’s more a case of every outhalf under the sun is in for a torrid day if the pack is struggling.
The Scottish tight five out-muscled, and the backrow out-scrapped England. I cannot see that happening to Rory Best’s pack.
The difference between Ireland and Scotland is clear: Schmidt sides – with Johnny at the core - are comfortable building a score while Townsend teams - with Russell at pivot – will eventually attempt the spectacular.
I'm backing Sexton/Murray over Laidlaw/Russell every single time.
It’s in the nature of each player.
The latter is more exciting than the former but Saturday, I expect, will show Ireland’s advanced progress in season five under Schmidt’s rule.
See Sexton’s pass for Stockdale’s first try against Wales. Johnny looked to his left three times, weighing up the defence and his attacking options, knowing the cut out pass was the best option.
Russell, being a freer spirit, made an instinctive decision to put Jones into space. He glanced up in possession and saw Joseph had rushed up. Throw that pass 10 times and we’d have a few intercepts and knock-ons.
England’s attacking strategy malfunctioned at Murrayfield. They tend to score off hammering a big runner over the gainline to present clean ball for the backs to finish. Look at Mako Vunipola’s strong carry and Farrell’s clever line doing the rest.
Otherwise, Scotland and mainly Barclay kept punishing them for not resourcing their rucks. Arrogance or poor game management?
Only they know. What we are seeing is a failure to problem solve during the game.
Ireland are programmed to avoid this problem. They are happy to exist on the gainline, inching forward until Sexton, Murray or even Bundee Aki identify an opportunity.
Patience wins this meeting of the tournament’s two best breakdown teams.
I’m rarely bullish about an Irish win - so many things can go wrong - but I have a growing sense of confidence with this group’s ability to win when it matters.
I’m backing Ireland’s willingness to go 41 phases to yield a match winning drop for Sexton over Russell, off second phase, flashing the ball wide for Stuart Hogg or Jones.
(Having both options is the ideal scenario for Ireland come Japan 2019).
I’m backing Sexton/Murray over Laidlaw/Russell every single time.
What could possibly go wrong?
Injury tends to undo Ireland more often than anything else. See the last three defeats. Last season Sexton wasn’t fit for Murrayfield and he was off the field for 20 minutes in Cardiff and Murray was also forced off. New Zealand removed Robbie Henshaw and CJ Stander while Sexton limped off all within 22 minutes of the 21-9 defeat in November 2016.
A clear pattern and problem that can reoccur at any moment in any game.
Whatever happens, Twickenham looms into view on Saturday night with the championship on the line.
I am interested in watching the body language of England players at Stade de France. Yes, they’ve only lost twice in 26 games under Eddie Jones but here comes the litmus test. Will this squad – largely the same players who failed at the 2015 World Cup – produce for Jones under this pressure?
They have never had to respond immediately to a defeat. France never believe they will lose in Paris against England.
The English players attitude will either convince or dissuade my opinion about Ireland winning over there on St Patrick’s Day.
