Focused Irish look poised to tie faltering Wallabies down

The new era Aviva fervour continues almost without interruption, though this time we’re not just discussing Joe Schmidt’s Ireland but also Ewen McKenzie’s Australia.

Two visionary coaches whose teams like to play inventive, attacking rugby and who like to identify opposition weaknesses, they and their staffs will have been working overtime analysing two somewhat mercurial outfits. This should be good, but it could also be anything.

As befitting the most unpredictable match-up of the November window, punters had pushed Australia into narrow favourites but by yesterday it was a 50-50 game.

'The drought generation'
The forecast, for continuing dry weather, may mean the scrum won't be as influential. It should also increase the chances of an Australian win, not because Ireland cannot play on a dry track, but because the Wallabies (the "drought generation", as Matt Williams calls them) cannot play in the wet.

Nor can presume Irish scrum supremacy akin to the World Cup meeting at Eden Park, much less the seismic dominance which disfigured the Lions’ third Test win in Sydney.

That said, the Wallabies’ scrum remains their Achilles’ heel, and if a discernible edge is to be had in the set-pieces, it will come from an Irish scrum with the Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross frontrow starting their 22nd Test together.

While Devin Toner adds to Ireland’s line-out and restart game, both offensively and defensively, it’s harder to see them gain huge currency here.

This contest is liable to be more about the breakdown. As his rival number seven Seán O'Brien admits, Michael Hooper is as adept as any openside at judging when to poach and when to back off, extracting maximum reward for limited punishment, and the brilliant Liam Gill is on the bench.

Defending
Of course, two attacking teams means some defending too. Encouragingly, last week, Ireland's breakdown work – less choking, more first man chopping and next one or two in to contest the ball – was good, less so their accuracy in possession.

Hence, for all the reasons you might believe Ireland can win, there are plenty of caveats. Australia have hit a groove, and are both more match-hardened and at a more advanced stage (nine games to one) under their new regime.

And as has been abundantly evident this November like all others in recent memory, coming off Super Rugby and Tri Nations/Rugby Championship the south’s big three are more acquainted with the kind of high tempo game Schmidt’s teams also seek and which his selection is seemingly aiming for this evening.

If given quick ball and the Will Genia/Quade Cooper axis starts wielding its magic on the gain line, then Israel Folau et al could start cutting Ireland’s defence to shreds.

Cooper, with his devastating sidestep and rich array of short and long passes and offloads, is becoming more familiar with his team-mates, and they with him, for he doesn’t pass to receivers so much as pass into space.

He laid on three of the Wallabies’ seven tries last week. He is the master of the assist, the Mezut Özil of world rugby.

In response to falling 10-0 down in Turin last Saturday they battered the Italian line and moved the ball to Cooper. The Italian midfield rushed up and Cooper dummied before passing in behind them as he was being hit to a space which Ben Mowen ran into to score.

Therein lies the dilemma for the Irish defence. Stick or push? In this at least, Les Kiss’s Irish defence are well versed, having successfully closed them down at the World Cup.

Brian O’Driscoll’s judgment of when to hold or advance (or drift or shoot) is second to none, and in the most important decision-making defensive position on the pitch. But Gordon D’Arcy’s role has always been under-stated and under-appreciated, and this game will be the biggest ask of Luke Marshall’s career defensively.

A wonderful running, passing and kicking outhalf, Johnny Sexton is also one of the best defensive 10's around.

Workload
Resting him last week was a smart ploy by Schmidt, but aside from concerns about his workload, Sexton is not renewing acquaintances from the familiarity of Leinster, more's the pity. He's coming from the crash/bang/wallop, aerial ping-pong of French club rugby.

His performance is going to be as intriguing as this match-up. He still has more than enough class to run the show the Schmidt way. He may even revel in it, and he remains a more bankable place-kicker than Cooper.

With all their main men in harness, there ought to be more urgency form the word go, more accuracy, less profligate kicking away possession and better retention of the ball.

Historically too, Ireland have less mental baggage and more belief against the Wallabies, who, judging by their unlucky Twickenham defeat, have lost the habit of winning close games.
Overall head-to-heads: Played 30, Ireland 9 wins, 1 draw, Australia 20 wins.
Biggest wins: Ireland: 27-12 (1979). Australia: 46-10 (1999).
Last five meetings: (2011) Australia 6 Ireland 15; (2010) Australia 22 Ireland 15; (2009) Ireland 20 Australia 20; (2008) Australia 18 Ireland 12; (2006) Ireland 21 Australia 6.
Betting (Paddy Powers): Evens Ireland, 18/1 Draw, Evens Australia. Handicap odds (Ireland +1) 5/6 Ireland, 18/1 Draw, 6/5 Australia.
Forecast: Ireland to win.