Ireland v Italy, Aviva Stadium. Kick-off: 3pm, Sunday.On TV: Live on Virgin Media and ITV1
The Grand Slam may be out of reach but Ireland can rekindle their 2022 Guinness Six Nations title hopes tomorrow after putting their feet up and watching today's brace of make-or-break matches.
A Scottish win over France would throw the championship wide open but failing that Celtic favour, then regardless of the ensuing England-Wales title eliminator, Ireland should at the very least end the weekend in second place.
If Ireland are to claim their first title since 2018, then the likelihood is they will do so on points’ difference, as was the case when edging out England in 2014 and 2015.
In actual fact it's worth noting that England had bigger winning margins over Italy in both of those campaigns, whereas Ireland's wins over Wales in 2014 and Scotland on the final day in 2015 which proved critical.
Setting good foundations in first winning the game will initially supersede this Irish team’s thoughts of bonus points and enhancing their points’ differential, even if a Sunday afternoon home crowd will be expectant of the latter.
“We know from the not too distant past that if you don’t approach the game in the right manner, then you can come away with egg on your face,” maintained Farrell.
“They’re a great side that’s well coached. You can see what they’re trying to do and where they’re trying to go to, so we need to be at our best to get the performance that we want because if we’re slightly off, we’ll have a hell of a time on Sunday afternoon.”
Even so, ultimately Ireland will be disappointed if they don’t better France and England’s winning margins of 27 and 33 points against the Azzurri.
Whereas France and England were locked and fully loaded, Farrell has looked to strengthen Ireland's options at '10' and '15' by affording Michael Lowry his debut and Joey Carbery another Six Nations start.
There's also a first Test start for Dan Sheehan and a first Six Nations start for Ryan Baird – enforced by an adductor issue for James Ryan which is expected to clear up in time for the Twickenham trek.
Open rugby
Add in returns for Peter O’Mahony, Robbie Henshaw and James Lowe, with Mack Hansen shifting to right-wing and Caelan Doris to ‘8’, and it looks like a team designed to play open rugby, with the forecast for tomorrow afternoon set fair.
Even Farrell himself was moved to describe this as an exciting team.
“I think it’s quick, I think it’s got skill, I think it’s growing in its knowledge of how we want to play. It’s got a calmness about it that’s getting better and better, which means that we’re hopefully going to be more accurate. As individuals, they’re learning all the time and as a group, they’re coming together more cohesively.”
After Hugo Keenan’s 18 Tests in a row, taking a punt on Lowry looks worth it.
The fleet-footed 23-year-old has been in electric form for Ulster this season, scoring three tries in four Champions Cup game, making eight clean breaks and beating 23 defenders for 562 metres. Nor does Farrell believe Lowry’s 5ft 7in, 12st 4lb frame is a problem.
“It’s actually a nightmare for somebody like me, if I was playing against him. I think his size is an added bonus for him. I think it makes him an absolute nightmare for people to handle.
“Since his first day at Ulster, he hasn’t grown, has he, since then? But he’s certainly got braver, more dynamic, more game awareness, more game sense. He’s able to play the game in many different ways. He’s explosive, hits a line, is brave, so we’re hoping he can be himself on Sunday.”
Kieran Crowley has made three changes, giving a second, third and fourth caps to winger Pierre Bruno (25), centre Leonardo Marin (23) and backrower Giovanni Pettinelli (25).
Hence, while this is a relatively inexperienced Irish team the match-day squad (636 caps) is more than twice as experienced as their Azzurri counterparts (296).
“They love throwing the ball around so they are excited about where they are going as well,” said Farrell. “At the same time it is about making sure that we get our ducks in a row and get off to the start we want and play at the tempo we want and be accurate and disciplined in our own game.”
Very inaccurate
Yet Italy have been very inaccurate and ill-disciplined in their two games to date. Interestingly, Nika Amashukeli is the first Georgian to take charge of a championship game, although Ireland experienced him in the November win over Japan.
“We think he is a great referee; we have had him before, he has refereed us before and he referees the game as it should be done,” said Farrell.
“He referees what he sees is illegal and he does not get bored with refereeing that. That is the game of rugby; that is how it should be refereed. We are pleased to have him.”
Ireland have won 21 of their 22 games against Italy in the Six Nations, including the last eight in a row (scoring 51 tries) and each of the last five with a maximum five-point haul since bonus points were introduced in 2017.
They look like reliable yardsticks.
IRELAND: Michael Lowry (Ulster/Banbridge); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster/UCD), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers), James Lowe (Leinster); Joey Carbery (Munster/Clontarf), Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD), Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Lansdowne), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Clontarf), Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Lansdowne), Ryan Baird (Leinster/ Dublin University), Peter O'Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution, capt), Josh van der Flier (Leinster/St Mary's College), Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary's College).
Replacements: Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch), David Kilcoyne (Munster/UL Bohemians), Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers), Kieran Treadwell (Ulster/Ballymena), Jack Conan (Leinster/Old Belvedere), Craig Casey (Munster/Shannon), Johnny Sexton (Leinster/St Mary's College), James Hume (Ulster/Banbridge).
ITALY: Edoardo Padovani (Benetton); Pierre Bruno (Zebre Parma), Juan Ignacio Brex (Benetton), Leonardo Marin (Benetton), Monty Ioane (Benetton); Paolo Garbisi (Montpellier), Stephen Varney (Gloucester); Danilo Fischetti (Zebre Parma), Gianmarco Lucchesi (Benetton), Pietro Ceccarelli (Brive), Niccolò Cannone (Benetton), Federico Ruzza (Benetton), Giovanni Pettinelli (Benetton), Michele Lamaro (Benetton, capt), Toa Halafihi (Benetton).
Replacements: Epalahame Faiva (Benetton), Ivan Nemer (Benetton), Tiziano Pasquali (Benetton), David Sisi (Zebre Parma), Manuel Zuliani (Benetton), Braam Steyn (Benetton), Alessandro Fusco (Zebre Parma), Marco Zanon (Benetton).
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia).
Overall head-to-head: Played 33, Ireland 29 wins, Italy 4 wins.
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/200 Ireland, 100/1 Draw, 70/1 Italy. Handicap odds (Italy +39 pts) 10/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Italy.
Forecast: Ireland to win with a bonus point.
