Vengeful Glasgow are Munster’s biggest challenge to date

Glasgow Warriors v Munster Rugby,  KO: 5.30pm (Live on Sky Sports 2)

Munster stand on the threshold of qualifying for the knock-out stages for the 16th time in 22 attempts, and first time in three years, should they win on a Scotstoun all-weather surface that will earn its description this evening.

But, against their main pool rivals by a distance, this looks to be their most daunting assignment to date.

Were Munster to lose with a bonus point, while denying Glasgow one, that would leave both sides on 17 points but with Munster in pole position by dint of their head-to-head record in the two meetings.

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Yet in what amounts to a group shoot-out, victory would not only secure first place in what looked a daunting Pool One, and which Munster began as outsiders of the quartet, but leave them requiring only another win against Racing at home next Saturday to earn a lucrative and advantageous home quarter-final at their Thomond Park citadel.

Defeat here though would seriously imperil those hopes.

However, Glasgow are themselves facing a point of no return, for while a defeat would not necessarily extinguish their mathematical hopes of advancing as one of the three best runners-up, losing is not really an option.

Furthermore, after Munster backed up their impassioned and inspired bonus point win over the Warriors in Limerick last October with a 16-15 Pro12 win at Scotstoun in early December, Glasgow will be in vengeful mood.

They both became edgy affairs, and a third meeting in three months is liable to have its fair share of needle.

Each coach has made four changes to winning line-ups from a week ago.

Rassie Erasmus recalls Keith Earls to the wing and David Kilcoyne to loose-head, with South African lock Jean Kleyn also restored after recovering from the virus that hit some of the squad last week.

Jack O’Donoghue replaces the injured Tommy O’Donnell. Ian Keatley is also restored to the bench.

Best defence

Having been rested for the bonus point win at home to Cardiff, Glasgow's main gamebreaker and match-winner Stuart Hogg is recalled by Gregor Townsend, as is hooker Fraser Brown, tight-head Zander Fagerson and flanker Robert Harley.

As Munster showed last Saturday in Paris, and to a lesser degree in a less focused, more error-prone performance in Welford Road – when they still had enough of the game to win it – they have the set-piece foundations, defensive system, kicking game and ball retention to make them competitive away to anybody.

They have the best defence in the competition, and to date have conceded only three tries in four games – and none by the hour mark.

Glasgow did score twice in the final quarter at Thomond Park, and while they use Leonardo Sarto up the middle, unlike Racing or Leicester they rely more on micro plays through quick recycling than crashing it up through big ball carriers.

So Munster will need to slow down Glasgow’s ruck ball and disrupt that rhythm with their line speed and the choke tackling of Donnacha Ryan, Peter O’Mahony, CJ Stander and co.

One of the major differences in Munster’s play this season, and a huge throwback to their vintage days, has been the work-rate of their tight-five.

Think back to Marcus Horan, Jerry Flannery, John Hayes, Donnacha O’Callaghan and Paul O’Connell in their pomp, and they were always good for a truck load of tackles and clear-outs to go with their set-piece work, mauling and carrying.

In the Stade Yves du Manoir last Saturday, the tight five forwards contributed 59 of Munster’s 116 tackles on the day, with Donnacha Ryan and Billy Holland contributing 32 of those.

Attacking game

As for Munster’s attacking game, in contrast to a week ago in Paris, if Glasgow again keep their back three deep to counter Munster’s running game then, as in Thomond Park, Munster may have to show a willingness to keep the ball and attack from deep as they did that day.

One can make a fairly good case for either team winning this game, and Glasgow are more familiar with that dastardly synthetic pitch.

They will also present an altogether different set of problems for Munster, suffice to say were they to keep them tryless for an hour or more it would probably constitute their best defensive effort in this pool to date.

Yet there is something about them right now which suggests Munster’s defence can adapt and prevent Glasgow from generating the high-tempo, phased attacks on which they thrive.

They may also have the mental strength to recover from setbacks and a little bit more about their attacking game today as well, albeit they may need to.

GLASGOW WARRIORS: Stuart Hogg; Tommy Seymour, Mark Bennett, Alex Dunbar, Lee Jones; Finn Russell, Ali Price; Gordon Reid, Fraser Brown, Zander Fagerson, Tim Swinson, Jonny Gray (c), Robert Harley, Ryan Wilson, Josh Strauss.  Replacements: Pat MacArthur, Alex Allan, D'Arcy Rae, Matt Fagerson, Chris Fusaro, Grayson Hart, Nick Grigg, Pete Murchie

MUNSTER RUGBY: Simon Zebo; Andrew Conway, Jaco Taute, Rory Scannell, Keith Earls; Tyler Bleyendaal, Conor Murray; Dave Kilcoyne, Niall Scannell, John Ryan, Jean Kleyn, Donnacha Ryan, Peter O'Mahony (c), Jack O'Donoghue, CJ Stander. Replacements: Rhys Marshall, James Cronin, Thomas Du Toit, Dave Foley, Billy Holland, Duncan Williams, Ian Keatley, Francis Saili.

Referee: Luke Pearce (England).

Previous meetings: (2016-17) Munster 39 Glasgow 17.

Results so far: Glasgow – W 42-13 v Leicester (h); L 17-39 v Munster (a); W 23-14 v Racing (a); W 23-7 v Racing (h). Munster – W 39-17 v Glasgow (h); W 38-0 v Leicester (a); L 16-18 v Leicester (a); W 32-7 v Racing (a).

Leading points scorers: Glasgow – Finn Russell 38. Munster – Tyler Bleyendaal 57.

Leading try scorers: Glasgow – Leonardo Sarto, Mark Bennett, Fraser Brown, Ali Price 2 each. Munster – Jaco Taute, Simon Zebo 3 each, Niall Scannell 2.

Betting (Paddy Power): 5/6 Glasgow, 17/1 Draw, 11/10 Munster.

Forecast: Munster to win.