Andy Farrell, not surprisingly, was inclined to play the straightest of straight bats at any attempts to peer into the knock-out stages of the 2027 World Cup following the draw for the tournament on Wednesday morning.
However, even at this remove, the Ireland head coach had to concede that the immediate consequences of winning or finishing second in Pool D look significant.
Quite simply, the winners of Pool D – in all probability Ireland or Scotland – will play one of the best third-placed sides in the Round of 16, which barring sizeable upsets, will be Georgia, or maybe Italy, or perhaps one from Japan, USA or Samoa.
By contrast, the “reward” for finishing runners-up in Pool D will be a Round of 16 tie against the winners of Pool E, which even allowing for France’s historic propensity for underperforming in the pool stages, will almost certainly be Les Bleus.
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That looks like a sizeable carrot which will dangle in front of Ireland and Scotland.
“You would have thought so, that’s for sure, and you obviously look at the importance of that,” admitted Farrell, before immediately setting his and Ireland’s sights a little higher.
[ Kind draw gives Ireland a glimpse of route through tournamentOpens in new window ]
“There are ways that things can happen a little bit differently as well and obviously everyone gets carried away with different sides of the draw, which is stronger and which is not, but ultimately we don’t want to just get past a quarter-final.
“So, ultimately you’re going to come across [teams that] whoever it is that are unbelievably strong quarter-final, semi-final, final-wise, and you have to be good enough to aim for that. I suppose that’s the main point from it.”
That may sound like grandiose talk given Ireland has never won a knock-out tie of any hue, although the team of 2023 was certainly entitled to aim high before an eighth quarter-final defeat ended an unprecedented run of 17 wins.
Caelan Doris, who was part of that side and is now the team’s captain, refutes the idea that past World Cups increasingly weigh on successive Irish sides.
“I think it’s largely outside noise to be honest. It’s obviously different this time anyway given there’s an extra knock-out game with a Round of 16, so if anything that will be favourable,” said Doris, noting that it could provide Ireland with “an opportunity to win a knock-out game before going into a quarter-final”.
“But I don’t think it’s a massive factor,” said Doris of the historical baggage.
Farrell spoke of his excitement when watching the draw and likes the expansion of the tournament to 24 teams, as well as the Round of 16, albeit he acknowledged that judgment awaits.
“But you know for sure that Australia are going to put on a great show at the World Cup. We know the facilities and everything that’s going to go with that.”
Heading the Lions squad to Australia last summer, with so many Irish back room team as well as 18 Irish players, ought to be a help too.
“It certainly helps with the ‘recce’,” said Farrell, who had been part of a two-hour planning meeting on Wednesday between World Cup draw and facing the media in the Aviva Stadium.
“We’re there in the summer as well for two and a half weeks,” he added of next year’s Tests there against the Wallabies and Japan before facing the All Blacks in New Zealand. “So it’s certainly a country we know well.
“We know the psyche as well, and what the fever pitch could look like towards the latter stages and we know the travel and the jet lag that goes with that.
“All those types of different experiences during the summer will stand to us.”
Farrell also spoke of how the squad will naturally evolve and how leaders will grow within the team over the next two years, and Doris believes the room for collective growth starts individually.
“I had a good chat with Paulie [O’Connell] earlier in the week around some of the things I need to work on personally. Some of the penalties I gave away, that’s not the standard we hold ourselves to. Some of the tackle technique stuff; there’s so many areas from an individual perspective.
“But I believe we have a group with the mindset to improve and to chase down the potential individually. That’s only going to add to the collective.”
There are effectively only four campaigns between now and the next World Cup, the 2026 and 2027 Six Nations either side of next summer’s and next autumn’s Tests comprising the two halves of the Nations Championship, in other words just 17 Tests before any warm-up matches.
“It’s not a long time at all and we need to use all that wisely, that’s for sure,” said Farrell, which underlined the value of prospective Emerging Ireland tours and Ireland A games.
Farrell also said his coaching ticket is not locked in until the World Cup, meaning there is scope for emulating the Springboks and France by bringing in a former referee as part of the ticket.
“There’s all sorts of reviews that we’ve been having over the last couple of weeks and we’re always open-minded to do the right thing by the squad.”
As an aside, Farrell had no clear prognosis on Mack Hansen’s anticipated recovery from the surgery he has undergone following his recurring foot injury, but admitted that the Connacht player is a doubt for the Six Nations.
“I think it’s longer than we’d have hoped for,” admitted Farrell, but added that Hansen will “definitely make a full recovery”.
