Just as Boris Johnson wrote two columns about Brexit, deciding at the last minute to file the one in favour of Leave, there are two columns to be written about the Lions. There is the familiar, nostalgia-soaked one in which everyone genuflects. Its place in the game is eulogised, its history venerated. ChatGPT could write that column faster than you could submit the request.
The alternative column about this summer’s tour is that it will only be interesting if the Lions are no good. Where is the challenge in beating Australia? They are no longer the basket case who were humiliated by Wales at the last World Cup and failed to qualify from their group, but they are no higher than eighth in the world rankings – lower than Ireland, England and Scotland.
Despite a marked improvement in form on their northern hemisphere tour last autumn, Australia have still lost seven of their last 10 Test matches. One of those defeats was a 40-point drubbing by Argentina.
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Apart from Wales, the other constituent parts of the Lions would expect to beat Australia without any outside help. How bad would the Lions need to be for the upcoming Test series to be competitive?
You might argue that misses the point. The challenge for any Lions touring party is how well they come together. Having spent the previous four years battering each other in the Six Nations and in club competitions, there is a premium on generating dressingroom chemistry and tactical coherence.
That is not simple and plenty of Lions tours have come undone because of this. Andy Farrell, though, has a talent for bringing people together. It won’t fail on that score.
Historically, Australia has always been the least taxing destination for the Lions. In nine tours, they have lost just two Test series. One of those defeats was in 2001, when Australia were the reigning world champions.
In most of the other visits, only one outcome was ever likely. When the Lions toured in 1959, for example, Australia had been beaten by Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales in the previous year. The overall score in Test matches between the Lions and Australia currently stands at 17-6 in favour of the Lions.
The dynamic between the Lions and New Zealand is completely different, even in the professional era when the world’s elite teams are all more vulnerable to each other. In 12 visits, spread over 114 years, the only series victory for the Lions was in 1971. The last series in 2017 was drawn.
In contrast to the upcoming tour, though, the Lions went to New Zealand eight years ago in the context of the All Blacks’ continuing dominance over the so-called Home Nations. Between the 2005 tour to New Zealand – in which the Lions were whitewashed – and the 2017 tour, the All Blacks had played 42 Test matches against Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales and won 40 of them. The average margin of victory was 21 points.
However, in the 12 years since Australia last hosted the Lions, they have played the Home Nations in 43 Test matches and lost 25 of them. “An iconic tour where greatness awaits,” trills the ad on Sky Sports. Against the eighth best Test team in the world? Really?
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter to the stakeholders, the vested interests and the captive audience. Hype is harmless and we all need some of that sugar in our diets. On TV and on tour, the Lions have a massive and fanatical following.
About 40,000 supporters are expected to travel to Australia and many thousands of ex-pats will join them at the venues. According to the Sydney Morning Herald last month, the nine matches of the tour are expected to sell-out, with almost 500,000 people passing through the turnstiles.
Australian rugby is badly in need of the income and the intravenous shot of excitement. In terms of playing numbers, elite player pathways, funding and public support for the game in Australia has been under siege for years.
When Joe Schmidt took over after the last World Cup, the team was a rabble. In his first squad, there were more debutants than at any time in the professional era. Given the material he had to work with, making Australia a credible threat to the Lions in less than two years would be one of the greatest achievements of Schmidt’s career.
How likely is that? Will the Lions devotees care if Australia are steamrolled? The biggest Test victory in the history of the Lions is 31-0 against Australia in 1966; the next biggest is 41-16 in the final Test against Australia 12 years ago when the series was on the line. If the Lions get their act together, winning margins of that magnitude should be in play on this tour.
[ Owen Farrell to be Sky Sports pundit for Lions opener against ArgentinaOpens in new window ]
For the players, the honour of being picked obliterates any of those concerns. Johnny Sexton’s first book, Becoming a Lion, was essentially a diary of the season which culminated in his first Lions selection in 2013. For the publishers, the prestige of the Lions brand made this a viable commercial proposition. Lions tours have spawned dozens if not hundreds of spin-off publications.
“For me, the Lions is the pinnacle,” wrote Sexton in Obsessed, his compelling autobiography. Among elite players in these islands that is a common feeling. Speculation about the make-up of the squad goes on for months.
The sense of romance harboured by players and fans run in parallel to Lions Inc and the brand’s enormous commercial virility. The last tour to South Africa, at the height of the pandemic, reportedly made a profit of €9.6 million; the previous tour to New Zealand yielded €9.3m.
The upcoming tour will easily surpass those figures. The circus begins with a farewell Test against Argentina in Dublin on Friday, an initiative which has offended some Lions traditionalists, though none of the Lions accountants. This development is in the same vein as the Tour de France hawking Le Grand Depart to its European neighbours. It’s all about the market and milking it.
First time out, with very little time to prepare, the game on Friday might be the sternest Test the Lions will face. Would that be in the spirit of the Lions?
What would Boris think?
