If Munster thought they were in knock-out territory ahead of last Friday’s 38-20 win over Ulster in Thomond Park, they certainly are now. Next Friday night at Musgrave Park (kick-off 8pm) they host Benetton in what effectively amounts to a straight win-or-bust shoot-out with the Italians for a place in both the playoffs and next season’s Champions Cup.
Due to results elsewhere over last weekend’s penultimate round, Munster only climbed one place to eighth in light of that bonus-point win over Ulster, moving above Cardiff on points difference after the latter’s 45-21 loss away to the Bulls.
But seventh-placed Benetton stayed above Munster in a three-way tie on 46 points by dint of having won more matches thanks to their 33-7 bonus-point victory over the champions Glasgow at home on Saturday. The Scarlets also stayed above Munster in sixth on 48 points after their 32-19 bonus-point win away to the Lions on Sunday.
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Lurking two points behind Benetton, Munster and Cardiff in 10th place on 44 points are Edinburgh after their 31-21 bonus-point win away to Connacht on Saturday. The Scottish team host Ulster, now out of the playoff picture and consigned to next season’s Challenge Cup, next Friday in Hive Stadium (kick-off 7.35pm).
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As things stand therefore, Leinster (who are assured of top seeding), the Bulls, Glasgow Warriors and Sharks have guaranteed themselves home quarter-finals, while the Stormers have also secured their place in the playoffs.
Five other teams remain in the hunt for the other three spots, namely the Scarlets, Benetton, Munster, Cardiff and Edinburgh.
Cardiff are away to the fifth-placed Stormers on Friday at 6pm Irish time, meaning Munster will know their fate at the conclusion of their game against Benetton in Cork.
A win of any kind would ensure Munster finish above Benetton and Edinburgh and thus guarantee themselves a top-eight finish. However, a draw without bonus points, or with one apiece, would leave Munster behind Benetton by dint of the Italians having won more matches and mean they would miss out on the playoffs and next season’s Champions Cup were either Edinburgh or Cardiff to win on Friday night. A defeat against Benetton would also see Munster miss out on the top eight were either Edinburgh or Cardiff to win.
Five into three
6th Scarlets 48 points (9 wins, +54 points difference)
Final round game: v Sharks (away) Saturday 6.30pm Irish time
Dwayne Peel’s side will know exactly what’s required of them at kick-off as the four teams below them all play on Friday night. It could be that they will already have qualified for the top eight or might need something from this game.
7th Benetton 46 points (9 wins, -76)
Final round game: v Munster (away) Friday 8pm.
Despite a vastly inferior points difference Benetton sit above Munster and Cardiff by dint of winning more matches, the first criteria for separating sides on the same points total. A win of any kind would thus ensure Benetton of a place in the top eight. A draw, provided they emerged from the game with the same match points as Munster, would also suffice provided Cardiff and Edinburgh didn’t both win, the latter with a bonus point. However, a defeat would see Benetton miss out on the top eight if Cardiff or Edinburgh win.
8th Munster 46 points (8 wins, +6)
Final round game: v Benetton (home) Friday 8pm
Munster know that a win of any kind would guarantee a top-eight finish as they would finish above Benetton and could not be overtaken by Edinburgh.
A draw, with a bonus point while denying Benetton one, would see Munster finish above the Italians and might be sufficient to make the top eight provided Cardiff and Edinburgh didn’t both win, the latter with a bonus point.
A draw, and the same tally of match points as Benetton, would see Munster miss out on the top eight if either Cardiff or Edinburgh win. A loss to Benetton, and a win for either Cardiff or Edinburgh, would also see Munster finish outside the top eight.
9th Cardiff 46 points (8 wins, -58)
Final round game: v Stormers (away) Friday 6pm Irish time
The Blues know that a win of any kind in Cape Town against the Stormers, who have secured a playoff place and cannot earn a home quarter-final, will ensure them of a top-eight finish. A draw or a defeat would not be sufficient if Edinburgh win.
10th Edinburgh 44 points (7 wins, +34)
Final round game: v Ulster (home) Friday 7.35pm
Edinburgh may sit 10th but they look reasonably well placed to qualify for the playoffs. A Cardiff loss, coupled with a clear result in Cork and a win of any kind against Ulster would ensure the Scots of a top-eight finish.
A win over Ulster with a bonus point would seal a place in the top eight provided Cardiff don’t win. If the Blues did win, then Edinburgh would be waiting on the outcome of the Stormers-Scarlets match.
A draw, without a bonus point, or a loss would see Edinburgh miss out on the top eight.
