Champions Cup: Ulster v Exeter Chiefs, Kingspan Stadium, Friday, 8.0 – Live on Premier Sports
It tells us much about the flawed format of the Champions Cup, and the relative lack of jeopardy in its pool stages, that even two of the three sides on zero points still have something to play for and mathematically can even still advance.
Given that after 48 pool matches only eight teams are eliminated, it’s therefore easier to qualify than not to do so. Hence, for Ulster and Exeter to be two of only three teams to be effectively out of the running for the knock-out stages after just three matches is an achievement of sorts, albeit unwanted.
In mitigation, Ulster and Exeter have been drawn against probably the two most potent sides in the competition, namely Bordeaux-Bègles and Toulouse. Ulster have conceded 101 points and 13 tries against the big French duo, which is positively airtight compared to Exeter’s concession of 133 points and 21 tries in their matches at home to Bordeaux-Bègles and away to Toulouse.
They’ve each scored six tries in those two games, but it’s their respective porousness in both this competition (34 tries leaked between them in those four games) and their respective leagues which suggests this could be a fairly loose game.
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Technically, either of these two could conceivably squeeze into the Champions Cup Round of 16, but Ulster would need to win with a bonus point and then hope the Sharks pick up nothing from their trek to Bordeaux in one of Sunday’s games, while also making up a whopping 56 points in points difference on the Durban-based side.
Exeter’s chances are even more remote. The Chiefs would have to do likewise, ie win with a bonus point, while the Sharks return from Bordeaux pointless and complete an 80-pointy swing in points difference.
Maybe they’re better off, for the reward of advancing would almost certainly mean a last 16 tie away to Bordeaux-Bègles or Leinster. But as the fifth-placed sides in each pool advance to an away Round of 16 tie in the Challenge Cup, whereas the last-placed sides drop out altogether, in essence therefore this is a playoff for the consolation of keeping their European season alive in the secondary competition.
It also tells us much about the weapons at Richie Murphy’s disposal that he only has three members of the 36-man Irish squad for the Six Nations, namely Rob Herring, Iain Henderson and Cormac Izuchukwu, which is two less than Connacht and Munster, never mind the 23 from Leinster.
This is influenced to some degree by Ulster’s crippling injury list, as otherwise Stuart McCloskey and Jacob Stockdale would have been named during the week, and ditto the suspended Tom O’Toole.
The headline call in Murphy’s selection is his decision to give his 20-year-old son Jack a first European start after his senior debut last month and a Champions Cup debut off the bench last Saturday in Leicester.
New signing Aidan Morgan is rested altogether after thus far failing to make the impact it was hoped after starting Ulster’s first 10 games of the season. Murphy junior, last season’s Ireland Under-20 outhalf who joined the Ulster academy last summer, is one of five changes from the side beaten 38-10 in Welford Road last weekend where their outside defence was all at sea again.
Herring and Tom Stewart return at hooker, the former starting and the latter on the bench, while the timely return to fitness of Stewart Moore and Michael Lowry strengthens a back three area where Ethan McIlroy was their latest casualty last week with a significant knee injury.
With Izuchukwu and Henderson in harness, Ireland development player James McNabney once again plays alongside Nick Timoney and David McCann. Timoney has been a bright light in Ulster’s season and after making 22 tackles last week, and missing none, while scoring a try, he should have fire in his belly after missing the cut with Ireland, and so too Nathan Doak.
There is also a healthier look to the Ulster bench, whereas by contrast Rob Baxter makes a dozen changes to the side beaten 69-17 at home by Bordeaux last weekend, including starting the one-time RBAI scrumhalf, 25-year-old Niall Armstrong, as well as Wales internationals Joe Hawkins and Christ Tshiunza, and Italian number eight Ross Vintcent.
The respective selections suggest that this home fixture is higher in Ulster’s priorities and they can salvage some pride and something tangible from this European campaign.
ULSTER: Stewart Moore; Werner Kok, Ben Carson, Jude Postlethwaite, Michael Lowry; Jack Murphy, Nathan Doak; Eric O’Sullivan, Rob Herring, Scott Wilson; Iain Henderson (capt), Cormac Izuchukwu; James McNabney, Nick Timoney, David McCann.
Replacements: Tom Stewart, Callum Reid, Corrie Barrett, Kieran Treadwell, Harry Sheridan, John Cooney, Jake Flannery, Rob Lyttle.
EXETER CHIEFS: Harvey Skinner; Ben Hammersley, Joe Hawkins, Will Rigg, Paul Brown-Bampoe; Will Haydon-Wood, Niall Armstrong; Will Goodrick-Clarke, Jack Innard (capt), Josh Iosefa-Scott; Rus Tuima, Christ Tshiunza; Martin Moloney, Richard Capstick, Ross Vintcent.
Replacements: Max Norey, Kwenzo Blose, Jimmy Roots, Jack Dunne, Lewis Pearson, Joe Bailey, Tom Cairns, Zack Wimbush.
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Sco)
Forecast: Ulster to win.
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