Autumn Nations Series: Ireland v Australia
Venue: Aviva Stadium.
Kick-off: 3.10pm
On TV: Live on Virgin Media 1 and TNT Sports 1.
The Counter Ruck: the rugby newsletter from The Irish Times
Hugo Keenan is Ireland’s Wolfe in green clothing as he helps clean up the occasional mess
Cian Healy’s humility has him reluctant to overblow becoming Ireland’s most-capped player
Ireland capable of kicking on from patchy autumnal campaign, says Farrell
Any 150th anniversary is worth celebrating. Besides, Ireland-Australia games are usually extremely good value, and this latest meeting has all sorts of interesting subplots and nuances. Granted it still looks like it’s been shoehorned into the season on the weekend that the URC returns and has assuredly inconvenienced the provinces, yet how would we have defined Ireland’s autumnal campaign without it?
A rusty sub-par defeat on an opening night almost devoid of atmosphere against the All Blacks, a blistering start against Los Pumas before an anticlimactic second half and then the most complete display of the month if against an ill-disciplined Fijian team that afforded Ireland something of an extended attacking session in attacks off set-pieces.
The general verdict would probably have been “ho-hum”.
But both the display and the result in this additional fourth fixture will probably define Ireland’s November campaign. Andy Farrell wants Ireland’s best performance of the series, and if his team deliver that then on balance it will have been a good month.
This will be all the more so with a trademark distinguishing stamp of Sam Prendergast’s authority while marking a landmark day for the IRFU and Cian Healy especially, then it will have been a good recovery and gradual improvement which will set up a tilt at a third successive Six Nations title nicely.
If, on the other hand, Ireland barely scrape past the Aussies, or worse are mugged by the Wallabies, then it will have been a marked disappointment.
This month has been a somewhat salutary one for the northern hemisphere, with four wins and nine defeats in matchups between the Six Nations and the Rugby Championship. Even so, this is a matchup between the back-to-back Six Nations champions, who have won nine of their last 10 games in that competition, at home to the team which finished last in the Rugby Championship, with one win in six.
Furthermore, although Ireland have transitioned into a post-Johnny Sexton era and are now embracing the callow but gifted and self-assured Prendergast, the bulk of their World Cup team has remained intact. This is reflected in the presence of Cian Healy and Peter O’Mahony among others, and throughout the team settled combinations abound, be it the first-choice back three of the last three seasons, an in-form Bundee Aki-Robbie Henshaw midfield partnership reviving its Connacht glory days almost a decade ago, not to mention that six of the pack also played under Schmidt.
By contrast new combinations abound in this remodelled Wallabies team under Schmidt, who has to undertake a much bigger rebuilding job after the wild and damaging Eddie Jones reign, and with nothing like the same foundations – witness the Waratahs finishing last in Super Rugby Pacific.
Schmidt is only a coach, not a magician, but he is a diligent hard-working one, and there have been clear signs of him working some signs of magic. Harry Wilson is a good young captain at 24, and Fraser McReight is a fine player. The second-rows have been an upgrade and Angus Bell will provide real oomph from the bench. They have unearthed some real X factor among their backs, not just the athletically-gifted if raw League recruit Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii.
Andrew Kellaway, Max Jorgensen (their match-winner in Twickenham) and Harry Potter, a try-scorer on debut last week, all feature, as does full-back Tom Wright, a mainstay this year who has missed only two matches and scored six tries in nine matches.
Yet while Schmidt has given them a structure, and of course those trademark strike moves will be a threat, he has clearly sought to free them up and play to their strengths.
“I think they’ve got their DNA back,” said Andy Farrell this week. “I think if you look over the history they’ve been unbelievably difficult to play against because of that DNA. I think they’ve brought a little bit of that back with a little bit more structure as well, which probably goes hand in hand at making them a better team.
“That is probably showing in the last couple of months, of how they’ve played, and that’s only going to get better. Therefore it’s a brilliant test for us.”
Is Joe Schmidt the right man for Australia?
Until last Sunday’s puzzling relative non-show in Murrayfield, it seemed as if these Wallabies might have been coming to Dublin seeking to emulate the legendary Wallabies of 40 years ago when Mark Ella scored tries in each of their four wins in completing a Grand Slam tour.
Previously they had scored five tries in a memorable comeback win over England which underlined their spirit and must have been a huge lift to their self-belief, and again in swatting aside Wales. But although they left chances behind last week and had some rough officiating, the Wallabies were well beaten by an admittedly talented and settled Scotland.
Those 34 missed tackles betrayed signs of real fatigue in a squad that has been on the go pretty much for a year ahead of an additional fixture that may be a game too far for them. Not alone have there been signs in this November window that the southern hemisphere sides were beginning to look more weary as the weeks passed by, but the European sides have been moving up gears after being caught a little cold.
That is certainly the impression that Ireland have given over their three games to date. Prendergast could hardly have more seasoned Test match animals around him than Jamison Gibson-Park and those midfielders.
Save for Finlay Bealham instead of the injured Tadgh Furlong, this is the same starting pack that fronted up from the kick-off in the second Test in Durban, and Farrell has surely used this week to have his team perfectly primed.
“Yeah, it’s been touched on quite a bit, the history, not just this week but generally it’s something we talk about,” said Caelan Doris, who is growing more assured in the role of captain. “The legacy of Irish rugby and how the success of teams in the past inspired us to play, and how we want to inspire the next generation through how we play.
“So it is talked about quite a bit. The jersey definitely means a lot to us. It’s a pretty cool one we get to wear this week, a little bit of a retro style to it, which will be nice. But it’s important and it’s an extra motivation for us, definitely.”
It may well just be that Farrell is sent off on his Lions sabbatical with the best performance of the series that he seeks, and is also a fitting tribute to a landmark day, not least for Healy.
Ireland: Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster), Mack Hansen (Corinthians/Connacht), Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster), Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster; Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne FC/Leinster)(2), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster), Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht), Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster), James Ryan (UCD/Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster), Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster), Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster, capt).
Replacements: Gus McCarthy (UCD RFC/Leinster), Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster), Tom O’Toole (Ballynahinch/Ulster), Iain Henderson (Ulster/Academy), Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster), Craig Casey (Shannon/Munster), Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster), Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster).
Australia: Tom Wright (Clovelly Eagles); Andrew Kellaway (Hunters Hill Rugby), Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (The Kings School), Len Ikitau (Tuggeranong Vikings), Max Jorgensen (Balmain Wolves); Noah Lolesio (Tuggeranong Vikings), Jake Gordon (Canterbury Juniors); James Slipper (Bond Pirates), Brandon Paenga-Amosa (Southern Districts), Taniela Tupou (Brothers Rugby), Nick Frost (Hornsby Lions), Jeremy Williams (Wahroonga Tigers), Rob Valetini (Harlequin Junior Rugby Club), Fraser McReight (Albany Creek Brumbies), Harry Wilson (Gunnedah Red Devils, capt).
Replacements: Billy Pollard (Lindfield Junior Rugby Club), Angus Bell (Hunters Hill Rugby), Allan Alaalatoa (West Harbour Juniors), Lukhan Salakaia-Loto (Randwick), Langi Gleeson (Harbord Harlequins), Tate McDermott (Flinders Rugby Club), Tane Edmed (West Harbour Juniors), Harry Potter (Moorabbin Rams).
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR).
Overall head-to-head: Played 37. Ireland 14 wins. Australia 22 wins, 1 Draw.
Betting: 1/9 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 11/2 Australia. Handicap odds (Australia +14pts), 10/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Auistralia.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
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