For years, almost a decade in fact, Irish rugby revelled in it. The Joe Schmidt Factor. The presence of the wily fox had to be factored into the equation when looking ahead to a Leinster game and particularly an Ireland game. It felt like it was worth a score per game.
Renowned for his attention to detail and his sharp intelligence, he could come up with a trick play, or two, or locate a weakness in the opposition ranks.
You think of that Jacob Stockdale chip-and-chase try against the All Blacks in 2018 when Ireland manipulated space in the backfield by reloading to the blind side off a lineout. Or a non-tackling outhalf for whom there was simply no hiding place as Leinster sought him here, there and everywhere.
Then suddenly Schmidt’s presence became an Irish fear factor when he popped up in the All Blacks’ backroom team on the eve of Ireland’s three-Test series in the summer of 2022. Perhaps Schmidt’s presence was given too much credit when the All Blacks won the opening Test in Eden Park. Especially as Ireland won the second and third Tests.
However, by the quarter-finals of the World Cup last year, Schmidt was much more settled in the All Blacks coaching ticket. He could be seen shouting himself hoarse in the warm-up when overseeing a breakdown drill and demanding rapid-fire ball. And, of course, there was that try early in the second-half.
Schmidt is a genius at having his team use a strike play in one game and then tweaking it subsequently for a different opponent. That All Blacks try in the 52nd minute of the quarter-final was a slight variation on a try on opening night against France from a shortened lineout in the exact same spot 10m inside their own half on the right-hand side.
Against the hosts, Aaron Smith’s long pass skipped Richie Mo’unga and hit their number 8, Ardie Savea, who chipped ahead for Will Jordan to gather. Against Ireland, from a near identical set-up off a lineout, Smith’s laser-like pass to the same three-man pod hit Mo’unga, with Savea on his outside. Identifying a slight dog-leg in the Irish defence, Mo’unga dummied, went through the gap and put Jordan over.
Would New Zealand have beaten Ireland without that try, or without Schmidt in their corner?
It’s an entirely valid question, not least as it ended the dreams of a brilliant Irish team, which had progressed under Schmidt’s one-time defence coach, Andy Farrell, and was primed to peak for that World Cup. Johnny Sexton could hardly bring himself to acknowledge Schmidt afterwards on the pitch.
In sport, when enemies become friends, or vice versa, is largely decreed by, or at least heavily influenced by, the colour of their kit. We could hardly complain given Schmidt first “taught us how to win”, as Sexton once put it, and not least against the All Blacks. And though it is an equally unpleasant thought, who’s to say that Farrell won’t one day return to England to coach them, and end up doing so against Ireland one day? You can never say never.
This is the nature, maybe the very essence, of all professional sport.
So, in the midst of Irish rugby’s changing relationship with Schmidt, there is the changing dynamic between Farrell and him. Farrell’s coaching career had hit its nadir after the 2015 World Cup, and its revival was sparked by Schmidt bringing him aboard as Ireland’s defence coach.
They shared some great successes, including Chicago, the 2018 Grand Slam, the repeat win over the All Blacks in the unbeaten calendar year and the initial rise to the top of the world rankings.
One senses that towards the end of Schmidt’s Irish reign, Farrell had already identified how he would do things differently, that under the more controlling Schmidt the environment was no longer as enjoyable a place in which to work for players and staff.
He set about making the environment more familial off the pitch and freer on it, so much so that players such as Peter O’Mahony, even when relegated from a regular starter to squad player, publicly declared that the Irish set-up under Farrell was the most enjoyable in which he worked. That wasn’t just an implicit critique of Johann van Graan at Munster, and Schmidt would not have been unaware of all this.
As with Farrell being let go by England after the 2015 World Cup, so Schmidt was also a free agent after the 2019 World Cup, and taking on the neighbours was also a gamble, albeit the only way was up for the Wallabies after the ARU’s misguided decision to dismiss Dave Rennie, and the madcap Eddie Jones reign.
Appreciating the Australian DNA, Schmidt has tailored his methods and given X-factor players scope within the system.
The dramatic 42-37 win over England and emphatic 52-20 win over Wales had banished the Rugby Championship last-place finish and instilled a belief that they could emulate the legendary Grand Slam Wallabies of 1984.
Last Sunday’s 27-13 defeat in Murrayfield against a Scotland side that, in truth, didn’t actually have to play that brilliantly, will have been a setback.
It also left Schmidt with only six days to revive his players. Yet coaching is a confidence trick as much as anything else, and one of Schmidt’s great strengths is to convince his players that they are supremely well prepared, and, with his insights into Ireland, perhaps even better prepared.
Farrell is the more thick-skinned of the two in how he is perceived, whereas Schmidt is the more sensitive soul. It would have pained Schmidt to think that contributing to Ireland’s 2019 World Cup heartbreak might have sullied his legacy in Ireland, and undoubtedly part of him would not have enjoyed that quarter-final win.
Farrell and Schmidt will probably meet for a coffee at some point this week. If so, they’ll probably talk about family and more important things than rugby, as well as rugby of course. Later in their lives, they’ll have less contact but there will always be warmth and friendship between them, a great history of both times shared and times in opposition.
But this week they are opponents, and although they’d never admit it, each will want to win that little bit more because of the identity of the opposing head coach.
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