Matt Williams: Beauty of rugby veiled behind its complexity - nothing in our game is a certainty

What does a game of Super Rugby played in Melbourne last weekend have to do with Ireland’s mission at Twickenham?

My beloved Waratahs, who are celebrating their 150th anniversary, are stuck in the quagmire of several consecutive seasons of poor results. A week after they were trounced by Queensland, they took on the most successful team in the history of Super Rugby and the current champions, the Canterbury Crusaders. Everyone predicted the Crusaders would overwhelm the historic Cambridge blue jerseys of the New South Welshmen.

The Waratahs won 37-24.

The lesson here is that nothing in rugby is a certainty. England have been in poor form for a long time and were humiliated in their last match in Edinburgh, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win at Twickenham. Rugby is not an exact science.

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It is true that when we compare the evidence of Ireland’s form over the opening games of the Six Nations to that of the English, it is impossible to not have Ireland as firm favourites.

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However, winning at Twickenham remains one of rugby’s greatest challenges.

From the statues of giant lions that guard the outside perimetre of England’s rugby fortress, to the prematch singing of the hymn Jerusalem, the home of English rugby drips with the vestiges of empire.

“I will not cease from mental fight,

Nor shall my sword sleep in my hand,

Till we have built Jerusalem,

In England’s green and pleasant land.”

The meaning of this stanza, written by William Blake, has been discussed by literary scholars for over a century. The rugby interpretation is that Blake was metaphysically implying that it is always a tough day at the office when you visit the “green and pleasant land” that was once known as Bill Williams’s potato patch.

“Bring me my bow of burning gold.

Bring me my arrows of desire.

Bring me my spear! O clouds unfold!

Bring me my chariot of fire.”

All a bit over top for a game of rugby. Give me Zombie any day.

Ireland's Twickenham Test

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It does reinforce that England will want an old-fashioned battle. In the World Cup semi-final, the Springboks did just that. The attacked England with a blinkered physicality and a first World War mentality that sent wave after wave of one-off runners into a wall of English defenders.

All meat and two veg to the English, who ate it up and unbelievably almost made the final. The Welsh arrived in south London with a similar game plan but with less talent and the white jerseys loved it. England turned both games into wrestling matches. In giving the English a one-dimensional physical battle, both the Boks and the Welsh did exactly what England wanted. Both ignored the first principle of tactics, which is to devise a game plan that gives the opposition something they don’t want.

The ball-in-play numbers from that muddy Anglo-Welsh wrestle-a-thon were horrendous. The ball was in play for a paltry 36.13 minutes. So for more than half the game, there was zip happening. The crowd was forced to wait for scrums to bind up for a shocking 18 minutes and 23 seconds. That is a figure that should disgust us all.

Some 12 minutes were lost while waiting for injuries and replacements. There were 10.54 minutes of standing about doing nothing as kickers repeated their prekick rituals before attempting penalties and conversions.

These time-wasting statistics tell us that a tactic of England’s game plan is to slow the game down and drag their opposition into a physical wrestle that they believe they can dominate. The new English defensive system is still regularly offside and leaves acres of space out wide on the flanks. This is the place where Ireland will find joy. England’s saviour may be the rain that is forecast, but not even a cyclone will save England if they repeat their error rate from Murrayfield.

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Against Scotland, they made a staggering 25 handling errors and their attack turned possession over an astounding 22 times. With numbers like that, it is simply impossible for a team to impose their game plan on the opposition.

Having just completed an extraordinary 18 consecutive home wins, Ireland are the mirror image of the English. In the last 13 Six Nations games Ireland have only conceded 13 tries while England have haemorrhaged 38. In the first three matches of this year’s championship Ireland have scored 15 tries while England have scored just six.

Ireland have replaced their talismanic outhalf, Johnny Sexton, with the inexperienced Jack Crowley, who has seamlessly taken over guiding the side’s complex and excellent attacking system.

Last year, after being the subject of moronic abuse from English fans, their inspirational captain Owen Farrell walked away from the team he has served so magnificently. Turning on one of their own all-time great players such as Farrell is a new low for mindless ignorance. So much for Jerusalem in England.

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Since Farrell’s departure, there has been a fog of indecision as to their best combination at outhalf and inside centre. While George Ford and Ollie Lawrence remain the current choice, England’s attacking play has at best been tactically incoherent and at worst has been a total mess. Marcus Smith is being lauded as the solution. For Harlequins, Smith has played with brilliant panache. However, when wearing a white jersey he too has been less than adequate.

The overwhelming evidence on every metric of measurement tells us that Ireland should win by a considerable margin.

However, the beauty of rugby is often veiled behind its complexity. This makes nothing in our game a certainty. Just ask the Waratahs.